Ruth Davidson began a whirlwind tour of Scotland by helicopter yesterday as new research suggested her party will struggle to replace Labour as the official opposition at Holyrood (Hamish Macdonell writes).
The Scottish Conservative leader visited Oban, Keith and Peterhead during the first part of a tour aimed at persuading supporters of other parties to back the Tories for the first time.
Ms Davidson said: “It is a big step to vote for a new party for the first time, but as I’ve said throughout this campaign, this isn’t a normal election. The SNP is on course to win. So the decision here isn’t whether you’re a Conservative or not, it’s whether you want a strong opposition or not.
“You don’t have to agree with everything my party says to back me in this campaign. You just have to want the SNP held to account.”
Ms Davidson is determined to meet as many undecided voters as possible — which may be just as well given yesterday’s publication of a new, detailed academic forecast of the likely result.
Advertisement
Dr Chris Hanretty, of the University of East Anglia, used national and local polling data and pooled it with historical information on the relationship between polls and outcomes to forecast the result.
According to Dr Hanretty, the SNP is most likely to win 70 out of 129 seats, with Labour taking 26, the Tories 22, the Liberal Democrats five and the Greens six.
No other party is forecast to win a seat.
In 2011, the SNP won 69 seats, Labour came second with 37 seats, and the Tories trailed in third place with 15.
Dr Hanretty said that the Conservatives were “exceedingly likely to register their best-ever seat tally”. His forecast was published as a fresh poll put Labour two percentage points ahead of the Tories in the constituency vote, by 21 per cent to 19 per cent; in the regional list vote the Tories lead Labour by 20 per cent to 19 per cent.