Any horse can win the Grand National, the bookmakers tell you. The winner of the very first Grand National in 1839, Lottery, was well named.
Actually, the truth is now different. The fences have been modified and the handicap has been compressed but it is still a fearsome test. The brooks are covered over and the fences have been made more attractive for horses to jump, but they are as big as fences get, and four-and-a-half miles is as far as they now go in staying steeplechases. But it is a fair test. The best horse in the race over the fences, over the trip, on the ground and at the weights, who enjoys normal luck in running, usually wins.
You do still get your Mon Momes, your 100-1 unconsidered outsiders (although, in hindsight, with 20-20 vision and all, it was easy to argue that Mon Mome should never have been a 100-1 shot). It is a horse race, after all. But six of the past eight and 15 of the past 20 winners were sent off at 16-1 or shorter. The Grand National is not a pin-sticker’s playground any more.
Advertisement
You are ideally looking for a horse who travels well, jumps well, stays the trip, has a little bit of class and, crucially, who is potentially well-handicapped, and Oscar Time fits that description perfectly. You probably don’t know for certain if a horse will stay four-and-a-half miles unless he has run in the National, but the Martin Lynch-trained gelding proved that he had stamina in abundance when he won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December 2009, and again when he finished second in the Irish Grand National last year.
Lynch has trained him for Saturday’s race since. He raced him only over hurdles this season in order to protect his handicap mark before the Grand National weights were published. Then, with his trainer secure that his weight couldn’t be tweaked, the son of Oscar ran a cracker to finish third behind The Midnight Club and Arbor Supreme in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February.
That was the first time that Sam Waley-Cohen had ridden him in a chase and, with that experience under his belt, and the confidence that goes with winning a Gold Cup in the interim, it is likely that the rider will be able to time his run a little better on Saturday.
Contrary to popular belief, it is probable that the amateur rider is an asset over the Aintree fences, even though he can’t claim his allowance. He rode Liberthine to win the Topham Chase over the big fences in 2006, and steered her to finish fifth in the Grand National itself in 2007, while he has won two Fox Hunters’ Chases over the big fences on Katarino. Oscar Time is potentially well handicapped on a mark of 145 — surprisingly for an Irish raider, 1lb lower than his domestic mark — and that sees him set to carry 10st 9lb, just about ideal. His preparation has gone well, he is the right age, and he could run a huge race.
Advertisement
The Midnight Club is a worthy favourite. He had the class to finish third in an Albert Bartlett Hurdle and in a Jewson Chase, yet he is all stamina, as he proved when he stayed on really well to win that Bobbyjo Chase on his most recent start. He is another who is potentially well handicapped on a mark of 149 (1lb lower than his new mark), he hails from the all-conquering Willie Mullins yard and he will have the invaluable assistance of dual National hero Ruby Walsh.
Backstage was going well when he was brought down in the race last year, he has been trained for the race since by Gordon Elliott, who trained Silver Birch to win it in 2007, and he will be ridden by Paul Carberry, while Arbor Supreme would be really well-handicapped on a mark of 139 if he could put it all together. Last year’s Irish National winner, Bluesea Cracker, recently purchased by JP McManus, could run very well if the rains arrive, while West End Rocker and Chief Dan George could out-run their current respective odds.