The odds of reward hold the key to successful betting. If you only bet when the odds are truly in your favour, then in the long run you will make money.
Horse racing, it is true, is not scientific. Nobody knows the true odds about each horse winning any given race. A betting show is merely a function of opinion and market forces. This column will endeavour to point out value bets — betting opportunities where the odds are in the bettor’s favour. The objective is not to collect on every bet, but to show a profit in the long run. Bets will be rated as one-point, two-point or three- point bets, depending on the value — the thinking being that the greater the number of staking points, the more compelling the opportunity and, therefore, the larger the bet should be.
The Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown this afternoon represents a betting opportunity. It is easy to understand why Southern Vic is all the rage for this. He is one of the most exciting staying novice chasers in Ireland or the UK and he was hugely impressive in landing his last two starts, his penultimate win achieved in a Grade One race at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival.
My fear about Southern Vic in the context of today’s contest is that it will not represent a sufficient test of stamina. Both of those wins were achieved over three miles and on soft ground. Today, he drops back to two miles five furlongs, and will probably race on ground no worse than yielding to soft. The last time he competed over two and a half miles was in December at Navan, when he was beaten on merit by Father Matt at level weights. At his likely restricted odds, Southern Vic is worth taking on today.
Our Ben is a more than viable alternative. A hugely progressive sort, he was a fast-finishing third to No Refuge and Racing Demon in the SunAlliance Hurdle at Cheltenham last season. He was no match for the talented Nickname on bottomless ground on his chasing bow at Leopardstown over Christmas, but he won a decent beginners chase at Fairyhouse last month over two miles — a distance that would have been some way short of his optimum.
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While it is a big step up from a beginners chase to a Grade One race, Our Ben’s form over hurdles means it is reasonable to assume that he is up to this grade over fences. Today’s decent ground should suit him and he represents a little bit of value at 7-2.
Looking further ahead, Our Ben has proved that he can handle Cheltenham’s undulations, he jumps well for a novice, he will handle the likely fast ground, and this year’s SunAlliance Chase does not have a vintage look about it. You can still nick 10-1 about Our Ben for that contest, and that is worthwhile. If he runs well this afternoon, he will be significantly shorter this evening.
One other Cheltenham bet worth having at this stage is Accordion Etoile for the Arkle. Rated 163 over hurdles, he is by far the classiest recruit to the steeplechasing ranks this season. In three runs over fences, he has done very little wrong. On the second of those runs, he won a Grade Two novice chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting, proving that he can handle the track.
Many decried his run last week when third to Central House at Punchestown. But that was his first run since November on ground that was far softer than ideal against rivals that are not far off Champion Chase class, and he still looked like the most likely winner until he blew up between the last two fences. Even before that race trainer Paul Nolan was at pains to point out that he would come on appreciably for the run.
Provided he gets there healthy and well, the likelihood is that he will have his optimum conditions at Cheltenham next month — fast ground and a fast pace. He travels supremely well in his races, his jumping is slick, he handles Cheltenham and he has a serious turn of foot. He is over-priced at 11-2.
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Recommended bets: Today: 1 point, Our Ben, Dr PJ Moriarty Chase, 7-2 Ante-post: 1 point, Our Ben, SunAlliance Chase, 10-1; 1 point, Accordion Etoile, Arkle Chase, 11-2 First for racing