Buffeted by complaints about its inaccurate weather forecasts, the Met Office now faces being dumped by the BBC after almost 90 years.
The Met Office contract with the BBC expires in April and the broadcaster has begun talks with Metra, the national forecaster for New Zealand, as a possible alternative.
The BBC put the contract out to tender to ensure “best value for money”, but its timing coincides with a storm over the Met Office’s accuracy.
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Last July the state-owned forecaster’s predictions for a “barbecue summer” turned into a washout. And its forecast for a mild winter attracted derision when temperatures recently plunged as low as -22C.
Last week the Met Office failed to predict heavy snowfall in the southeast that brought traffic to a standstill. This weekend a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times reveals that 74% of people believe its forecasts are generally inaccurate.
By contrast, many commercial rivals got their predictions for winter right. They benefit from weather forecasts produced by a panel of six different data providers, including the Met Office.
Despite criticism, staff at the Met Office are still in line to share a bonus pot of more than £1m. Seasonal forecasts, such as the one made in September, are not included in its performance targets.
John Hirst, the chief executive of the Met Office, has been reported as saying that recent forecasts had been very good and as blaming the public for not heeding snow warnings. He received a bonus of almost £40,000 in 2008-09.
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Metra already produces graphics for the BBC, including the 3-D weather map that made some viewers feel sick when it was introduced in 2005. Weather Commerce, Metra’s UK subsidiary, has already usurped the Met Office in supplying forecasts to Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer and Waitrose.
Established meteorologists
Metra has been negotiating with the BBC since September, when a new tender document, seen by The Sunday Times, was sent to forecasters. It stated that the corporation was seeking a single forecaster to provide meteorological data and presenters for five years.
Only companies with a turnover of more than £10m have been invited to apply. The Met Office is still likely to be a strong contender.
A source close to Metra said: “The BBC is not happy with the service it has been getting from the Met Office; it thinks it’s too expensive. We have the ability to provide a bespoke service that will undercut it. Because we already produce the graphics we’ve got a foot in the door, so we’re optimistic.”
During its time on the BBC the Met Office has produced a series of unlikely stars, including John Kettley and Michael Fish, as established meteorologists were thrust before cameras.
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Many commercial rivals have been put off bidding by the requirement to provide presenters. A source at one rival said: “Where are we going to find 20 weather presenters? It’s a huge burden. The Met Office has an unfair advantage.”
A BBC spokesman said: “It is common practice to look at the options available when a contract is about to expire to ensure we get the best value for money for our licence fee payers.”
The Met Office was bullish, though, saying: “We have always been in the strongest position to provide the BBC with accurate and detailed weather forecasts and warnings for the UK.”