So often this is one of the trickiest games to call in the RBS Six Nations Championship. Two countries with similar playing resources, both of whom have enjoyed success in the tournament in recent seasons.
Yet Ireland have had much the better of the sides’ two most recent meetings, racing into a 30-3 lead on their previous visit to the Millennium Stadium two years ago before Wales limited the damage to a 30-22 defeat. Last year in Dublin, there was no such rally and Ireland were comprehensive 26-3 winners, setting them on the path to the Six Nations title.
The players know each other well from their regular meetings in the Guinness PRO12 and there is much at stake for both teams this afternoon, when the game will be decided in a handful of areas.
Breakdown
Ireland were vastly superior in this area against England a fortnight ago, but Wales, with Sam Warburton to the fore, are better equipped to compete for the ball on the floor. In Dublin last year, though, Wales’ back row were outplayed in a game in which Peter O’Mahony, the Munster blind-side flanker, came of age as an international player and is now one of the finest exponents of his trade in Europe.
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Controlling half backs
While Jonathan Sexton and Conor Murray are in their prime as a half-back pairing, lauded as the world’s finest after their performances in recent weeks, Dan Biggar and Rhys Webb, the Ospreys duo, are showing promise in their first full season together at international level. They have scored three of their side’s four tries between them, while the fluency of Webb’s passing has given Biggar that precious extra split-second to launch his powerful centres into action. Webb is not as physical as Mike Phillips, though, and Murray may seek to draw his opposite number into a tussle around the fringes.
Centres of contrast
One area in which Wales could gain a clear advantage, should their forwards provide an even share of front-foot ball. Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne have done little wrong in their fledgeling international careers (ten starts between them), but Roberts and Davies will provide a much sterner test of their defensive capabilities than England’s midfield managed a fortnight ago.
Aerial battle We can’t talk about Ireland at the moment, of course, without due reference to their excellence in the aerial duel, the defining feature of their victory over England. Will Sexton and Murray target Wales’ back three in the same unforgiving manner? Probably not to the same extent. Leigh Half- penny and George North are not the same soft targets that Joe Schmidt identified in England’s back three, while Liam Williams is a full back by preference.
Alun Wyn Jones v Paul O’Connell
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The starting locks at the beginning of the Lions’ two most recent series, in South Africa in 2009 and Australia two years ago, each sets the tone for his pack. Whoever gets the upper hand today is likely to finish on the winning side.
The Times writes gives their verdicts on the Celtic clash
Owen Slot
Ireland by five. Wales have a victory within them, but haven’t shown consistency to beat one of the world’s top teams, which Ireland have become.
Stuart Barnes
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Ireland by nine points. Self-belief and rugby intellect over brute force.
Alex Lowe
Ireland by three points. Wales may force Ireland to do more than squeeze penalties butJohnny Sexton and Paul O’Connell should prevail.
John Westerby
Ireland by three points. Expect a tight, defence-dominated contest.