Nicola Sturgeon was justifiably triumphant as she announced, around dawn yesterday, that her party had just won a record third term in the Scottish parliament. It was, she said, the first time that any party had done so since devolution. It is indeed a remarkable achievement for the SNP, which, for more than 70 years, languished on the sidelines of Scottish politics, but is now, undeniably, the mainstream party of government. Scottish voters have seen, in its oft-proclaimed commitment to Scottish interests and Scottish improvement, a party that reflects their own desire for a better-governed country.
The Nationalists have fallen short, however, of gaining an overall majority, and this is significant, not just in curbing some of their ambitions, but in restoring the parliament to something that more closely resembles the original intention of the devolution planners. The voting system devised under Donald Dewar’s leadership was always intended to prevent any one party holding outright power.
That intention has now, once again, been met. In years to come, the election of 2011, when the SNP won an outright majority, may be seen as an anomaly. Ms Sturgeon will have to decide, as Alex Salmond had to in 2007, whether she goes on to form alliances with other parties or seeks to govern alone; yesterday she ruled out coalition talks and she is, of course, in a far better position than he was, to dictate the terms on which this will be done.
This election will be remembered as a turning point for the Scottish Conservatives. The irrepressible campaign of their leader, Ruth Davidson, the clear blue water she put between her and the party’s “toxic” past, the promise of a robust opposition to the SNP, and the offer of a right-of-centre alternative in parliament, fills a vacuum in Scottish politics. Just possibly, the Scottish Tories can achieve something that David Cameron has failed to do in England — mount a broad appeal to blue-collar, meritocratic working-class Tories, once the party’s traditional supporters.
Ms Davidson’s own victory in Edinburgh Central, Jackson Carlaw’s seizing of Eastwood, Oliver Mundell’s victory in Dumfriesshire, and the way in which, in seat after seat, the Tories moved up into second place, marks a sea change in Scottish politics, and promises, at last, a proper debate about key issues such as tax, education and health. Scotland may just be beginning the journey back to “normal” — a country with a strong party of government and a lively opposition.
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Patrick Harvie, for the Greens, fought an entertaining and energetic campaign. He has won his reward with an increased number of seats and the kind of representation that echoes the original intention of devolution — to have a variety of opinion in the parliament, and a more entertaining level of debate. The Greens have now overtaken the Liberal Democrats in terms of seats, but Willie Rennie, the Lib Dem leader, will be enormously heartened, not just by winning North East Fife himself — a singular triumph — but by seeing first-past-the-post victories on the mainland, in Edinburgh Western, and increased majorities in Orkney and Shetland. “We are on the way back,” he announced, and that may be the case. What must concern the party is the way it appears to have surrendered one of its traditional strongholds in the Borders.
The saddest sight of the evening was to see Kezia Dugdale, the Labour leader, standing on the platform, smiling bravely but forlornly, as the Edinburgh Eastern result was read out. The party that once held Scotland in its grip has seen the country fall from its nerveless grasp.
To have lost all its Glasgow seats still seems unimaginable, but it is a reality in a nation that has moved on from its former loyalties. Scottish Labour has surrendered power, but has yet to come to terms with how and why it did so. In retrospect it now seems ill-advised for it to have tried to outflank the SNP on the left. Not only was it trying to appeal to “yes” voters, while remaining a Unionist party, it lost the support of “no” voters who could not work out exactly where it stood on the constitution. Ms Dugdale’s fatal admission that she might vote “yes” in a future referendum blurred the issue just at the point where voters needed certainty.
There were bright spots for Labour, of course, particularly Iain Gray’s victory in East Lothian and Jackie Baillie’s slender majority in Dumbarton; there will be even more pleasure at the way in which the businessman Daniel Johnson won Edinburgh Southern from the SNP.
The party now has a lot of hard thinking ahead of it. Labour’s decline dates back a long time, and reflects the way it has consistently failed to “read” modern, post-industrial Scotland. It has lost contact with its roots while failing to find new ground on which to grow.
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The party needs to reflect long and seriously about the role it can play in the new Scotland. Ms Dugdale deserves to carry on as its leader, but she too must come to terms with the fact she backed a set of policies that failed to work last time around, and did no better this time. They will have to be revised, refined, and, if necessary, ditched if Labour is ever to rediscover its role on the centre left of Scottish politics.
Overall, in terms of the balance achieved in the new parliament, this was a good result for Scotland. By fighting a cautious campaign, with no extreme positions on tax, the SNP now finds itself in the centre ground, and has not lost support in doing so. It has a clear mandate to govern, but cannot brush aside opposition, since it does not enjoy an overall majority. It has made an outright commitment to improving education, and has shown that it is prepared to do so by giving schools more freedom in determining their own future.
This is a healthy development, one we have long recommended, and which we applaud. Ms Sturgeon must now put all thoughts of a second referendum behind her, and concentrate on governing the country. No other party — including the pro-independence Greens — wants to see that issue destabilising the far more important priorities of health, education, and boosting the Scottish economy.
The prospect of a more honest and accountable parliament has been improved by this election. It has a greater variety of views and a more competent opposition. The Scottish electorate has thrown its weight behind a party it trusts to run the country competently and well.
The SNP now has a duty to ensure that that trust is not betrayed.