America’s airports are humming again. On several days last month, passenger numbers exceeded even pre-pandemic levels. This month those figures have averaged almost 80 per cent of the norm, with about two million travellers heading through terminals across the United States each day.
By and large, though, people are not flying as far and wide as they once did. As Hawaii and vast national parks grapple with an influx of domestic holidaymakers, international air traffic languishes.
Capacity between London and New York, typically among the most lucrative routes in the world, is a fraction of previous levels. Increasingly exasperated calls from the airline and travel industries for the loosening of pandemic restrictions have fallen on deaf ears in Washington. America continues to retain its travel ban on most people who want to fly from Britain. While Whitehall has lifted quarantine requirements on vaccinated arrivals from the US, the Biden administration is advising Americans against travel in the other direction.
Of the $10.6 billion in revenues generated by the transatlantic market in this quarter in 2019, John Grant, of OAG, the aviation data group, recently estimated that the sector would be lucky if it makes a tenth of that in 2021.
It is into this uncertainty that JetBlue, a low-cost American airline, will take off next week. On Wednesday, the carrier is to launch its first service between Britain and America.
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Breaking into this corner of the market is notoriously tough. Norwegian Air, having once boasted of flying more people to the New York area than British Airways, ended the last chapter of cheap transatlantic travel when it scrapped long-haul services in January. Sir Freddie Laker’s Skytrain collapsed in the early 1980s after failing to compete with larger players.
Executives at JetBlue say that its services to New York’s John F Kennedy airport, from Heathrow and from Gatwick, are not comparable with such ventures. Chris Tarry, a veteran airline analyst, agrees. JetBlue was putting a “toe in the water,” he said, with a proposition “completely different” to those launched by the likes of Norwegian. “The problem Norwegian had was it didn’t have enough premium seats,” he said. “It also had a large aeroplane to fill.” In contrast, JetBlue is flying the single-aisle, narrow-body Airbus A321LR — or long range — aircraft across the Atlantic. Two dozen of the 138 seats will be business class, pitched at passengers seeking greater comfort for a lower price.
JetBlue is promising to shake up the status quo, offering lower fares. Return ticket prices start at £329 in economy and £999 for business travellers. An additional service between London and Boston will launch next summer. After that, the carrier could expand beyond Britain to the Continent.
“JetBlue have always expressed an interest in serving Europe with their A321XLR aircraft, and coming out of a global pandemic when traditional travel patterns, booking behaviour and brand loyalty is at its most vulnerable is a great moment,” Grant said.
The two biggest challenges the carrier faced, he added, were limited awareness of its brand in the UK and competition with the likes of BA, which flies multiple times a day to New York.
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“Fortunately, I think JetBlue will have enough brand value in the US to grab a decent share of traffic, which is just as well since the UK market remains closed until the US authorities change their minds,” Grant said.
Established at the turn of the millennium, JetBlue is America’s sixth largest airline. Until recently, it had focused on domestic services. It has been run by Robin Hayes, a British executive who climbed the ranks at BA, since 2015.
BA and Virgin Atlantic are running capacity between America and the UK this summer at almost a third of their respective 2019 levels, according to OAG. Yet the turbulence caused by the worst recession in the history of commercial aviation has provided JetBlue with a leg up. Lucrative take-off and landing slots at Heathrow can go for millions of pounds, but this system has been effectively suspended during the pandemic to support the industry.
Such conditions have unleashed a wave of ambitious start-ups planning to take to the skies and capitalise on returning demand. They include Norse Atlantic, which is set to launch transatlantic services of its own.
For those who believe JetBlue has a shot at success, entering the stage now may turn out to be an example of exquisite timing. When the White House loosens restrictions on the UK, they assert, the carrier will be in play. “I think it stands a good chance,” Tarry said. “When demand comes back, it’s likely to come back pretty strong.”
