THE ascent of the Prince of Wales to the throne would probably bring the monarchy to an end in Australia.
An opinion poll published in The Australian newspaper today indicates that the crowning of the Prince would swing a decisive block of voters against the monarchy and open the way for his much more popular mother to become “Elizabeth the Last” in Australia.
The republican debate has been almost dormant for several years, but the “Charles and Camilla factor” would generate majority support for a republic in all age groups and both sexes. The survey by Newspoll, the nation’s leading pollster, found that 46 per cent of Australians want a republic, with 34 per cent opposed. With the Prince on the throne, that 12-point gap almost doubles to 23 points, with 52 per cent supporting a republic and 29 per cent against.
As a further 19 per cent of voters are uncommitted, there would be fertile ground for any push to ditch the monarchy after the passing of the Queen, who turns 80 in April.
A referendum is likely about the end of this decade and would require a simple majority, including a majority of the vote, in most of the six states.
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The pro-republic Labor Party has promised a referendum in 2010 if it wins the 2007 election. A conservative government could also sponsor a referendum about that time as John Howard, the Prime Minister and a fierce monarchist, is likely to have stepped down and his deputy, Peter Costello, is an avowed republican. A referendum in 1999 failed despite overall support for a republic because Mr Howard split republicans by forcing them to choose a specific model.
Although the Prince has visited Australia once in the past 12 years, the Duchess of Cornwall has never been there. The poll question specifically mentioned the Duchess’s proposed role as Princess Consort before asking the 1,200 respondents their views about becoming a republic under Charles.
The prospect of his being King prompted the strongest opposition to the monarchy recorded by Newspoll except during the backlash against the Royal Family after the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, in August 1997. The biggest change of opinion was among women. The number who said that they would strongly favour a republic under the Prince rose by ten points.
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Peter Wilson is the London correspondent of The Australian