We have spent the summer wondering how this new England side might fare against the Aussies: now we are about to find out. Excitement and trepidation in equal measure. Whatever else happens in this grey event now pales in comparison to how Michael Vaughan’s side measure up to the mighty green caps. The odds are that they still lose, but how they fare at Edgbaston on Tuesday offers the best clues yet as to their chances of regaining the Ashes next year, even if one-day and Test cricket are worlds apart.
Key questions await answers. How will Andrew Flintoff, who has faced this opposition in only two one-dayers, cope with the tourniquet of Australian bowlers? Will he be drawn into a six-hitting competition with the other Artillery Andrew, Symonds? Has Marcus Trescothick found a solution to Jason Gillespie’s probing lines? How will Steve Harmison deal with Matthew Hayden attacking him from a foot outside his crease? Like Ricky Ponting, Hayden — who likes ball coming on to bat — will see Harmison’s hostile pace and angles as a challenge to be met head-on.
England may not win, but what they must not do if they are to be taken seriously as Ashes challengers is choke if they get a chance to take the upper hand. They have done this too often to Australia in eight losing Test series and 14 consecutive one-day defeats. Theses opponents are too ruthless to allow second chances.
Knowing that if you don’t stamp on them, they will stamp on you has thrown many into fatal anxiety fits. On Thursday, Stephen Fleming, the New Zealand captain, admitted his batsmen took too many risks in an effort to go hard at the Australians and came unstuck as a result. The key is to play your usual game; it is simply that that game must be merciless — and bloody good. It’s a style England have worked towards this summer.
Whatever they say, Australia will be slightly apprehensive. England’s recent Test record commands respect, and the Australians will be conscious that England are playing under a new captain who is not in awe of them, as so many are.
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Four of this England side have never faced Australia before, and most of the rest savoured victory in the last Test the countries played in Sydney and the desperately narrow defeat at Port Elizabeth in the World Cup. Darren Gough has played in six one-day victories over the old enemy and Ashley Giles in two; both bowled well at the death in England’s last one-day win at Sydney on January 17, 1999.
If this new generation of England players can show themselves unfazed by Australia's bullying tactics — the Australian-raised Geraint Jones is sure to receive some choice words — then they will take a huge step towards halting the run of defeats.
In one-day cricket, Australia remain the superior side. They are vastly more experienced and significantly better fielders. The way they fielded against New Zealand would have satisfied most dressing-rooms, but in theirs it was cause for inquiry. Two out of four attempts at direct hits missed, and there were three misfields that cost runs, plus some overthrows.
Where they are vulnerable is in the back-up bowling of Shane Watson, Darren Lehmann and Symonds, but even then they can usefully take the pace off the ball mid-innings.
England must win the toss if they are to have a chance. This is a bowlers’ tournament, and Harmison, Gough and Flintoff might make sufficient inroads into the Australia top order to even up the game, doubly so, given the trouble Glenn McGrath, Gillespie and Michael Kasprowicz — the most economical one-day bowler this year — might cause were they to get first go.
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England prefer batting second in any case; they might do a New Zealand and implode out of fear of not scoring enough. Provided they are not overrun, England need feel no disgrace in losing.
Indeed, it could work to their advantage. The Australians will not take defeat lightly, and failing to win the Champions Trophy at the fourth attempt and feeling England’s breath on their necks might hasten the retirements of McGrath and Lehmann ahead of the Ashes, when England might prefer to see them kept in service.
It might also prevent the hype ahead of next year’s encounter getting out of control. The last thing England want is some billing them favourites.