There will be no gentle end to the war in Syria. The people of eastern Aleppo were yesterday cowering at the prospect of Iranian-backed militias spreading through their neighbourhoods, murdering civilians in the rubble of the city. A ceasefire that was supposed to allow an orderly evacuation collapsed amid a renewed onslaught of Syrian government shelling and airstrikes. The United Nations rightly described the crisis as a “meltdown of humanity”.
The first priority of the international community has to be to get civilians to safety, to bring in medical and food supplies and to persuade the warring parties — Russia, Iran and the regime of Bashar al-Assad — to stop flattening the city. They have already committed war crimes in their rush to deal a crushing blow to the moderate Syrian opposition. To go further and allow Aleppo to become a slaughterhouse would not only be a moral breach but also a political blunder, creating a new generation of jihadists.
The fall of the city will secure Assad’s position since, with help from Moscow and Tehran, he now controls urban Syria. He holds sway, too, over most of the Lebanese border and the Mediterranean coast. A central pillar of western policy, that Assad has to be levered out of power and replaced by moderates, has been irreversibly damaged. The war has turned, hence the comparisons yesterday with Stalingrad, and the balance of power in the whole region is shifting.
The Syrian president will use the momentum of his victory in Aleppo to attack the barren, impoverished Idlib province where many of the fleeing rebels have set up a new seat of resistance. Russia will almost certainly help him on this new front line. It calculates that the rebels, prodded on by Russia’s own brutality, will align themselves more closely with the jihadists of al-Qaeda. The Kremlin thus sees no reason why it should hold back. The war continues, as does the wilful humiliation and slaughter of Assad’s citizens.
Is there any cause for optimism in this bleak landscape? Soon the military axis that secured the destruction of Aleppo will disintegrate. There is no perfect match between the ambitions of Moscow and Tehran. Iran is well on its way to completing a Shia crescent, allowing it to pass arms, cash and influence through Iraq and across Syria’s Alawite heartland to its Hezbollah loyalists in Lebanon. It considers itself a rising power, and it could be ready to accept a future partitioning of Syria. Moscow, by contrast, is still intent on maintaining an intact Syrian state, with a Russian-armed Syrian national army and a naval base. It appears to have no interest in a Syria split crudely between Alawites, Sunnis and Kurds.
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These cracks should be exploited by the new US administration. What must be avoided is a sense that Iran is the victor, the beneficiary of Assad’s weakness and Russian firepower. Stiff sanctions must be enforced against anyone linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. They must block Iran’s access to American markets and restrict its ability to fund subversion abroad.
For the time being the West should concentrate on shrinking Assad’s world. Britain plans to send drones across Aleppo to record crimes committed by Assad’s troops and their allies. The Syrian leader should know there will eventually be an accounting for his war crimes. He may be sleeping better in his Damascus refuge, but there is a cell waiting for him in the Hague.