Argentina’s chances of winning the World Cup have risen to 10.1 per cent now that they are through the “group of death”. But they have a weakness — their fifteenth-ranked defence. Against the consensus, Fink Tank’s computer makes Holland slight favourites today — 39 per cent to 33 per cent.
Portugal have a 46 per cent chance of beating Mexico and a 26 per cent chance of losing, while Iran have a 41 per cent and Angola a 33 per cent chance of winning their game. Ivory Coast are favourites (46 per cent) against Serbia and Montenegro (27 per cent).