Since the World Cup pools were drawn the consensus was that beating France would be Ireland’s gateway to the semi-finals. Can we be so sure now? I don’t think so. Not only have Ireland been slaughtered by injuries and suspension since last weekend but this World Cup has shown that Argentina are miles better than France. The challenge facing Ireland today is massive.
Speculation about who Joe Schmidt would pick in his starting XV was clouded by injury bulletins all week. Ireland were obliged to announce a team on Friday but I don’t think we’ll know for sure who’s starting until the last minute today. Yesterday we lost Johnny Sexton. Is there anybody else we should be worried about in the final hours before kick-off today?
Schmidt had to name Sexton on Friday and give him every chance to make it. With Sexton out, Paddy Jackson comes onto the bench without much game time or big-match experience. An injury to Ian Madigan could prove fatal for Ireland. For Madigan there is much less pressure coming off the bench as he did last week. When he came on against France last week, Ireland were dominating both territory and possession and that was the case almost throughout the match. Against the Pumas, Ireland will have less of both which means taking the correct option every time will be absolutely vital.
Over the years there was never any doubt that Madigan had a spark. My concern is with his tendency to continue with a preordained option even when the defensive picture changes at the last moment. He was good in the bread and butter stuff and in his game management last Sunday. But then he threw a long left to right pass that was never on that could have been picked off and all his good work was nearly undone. He threw the same pass against Toulon in the Champions Cup semi-final and it was picked off.
In a game like this we really need Sexton’s more proven ability to manage the ball around the field and consistently make good decision and I’m not sure we’ll be able to cope without it. If Madigan can bring this level of game management it will be the first time has has at this level.
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Paul O’Connell is a massive loss for all the obvious reasons but Ian Henderson’s form has been so phenomenal that his presence may not weaken Ireland significantly on the pitch. Making up for the loss of Sean O’Brien is a different matter. On a day when the gain line will be a war zone we’ve lost our most potent ball carrier.
The temptation for the Irish management was to put Henderson into the back row with Chris Henry at seven and draft in Donnacha Ryan as Devin Toner’s partner but I think they were right to leave Henderson in the second row. Schmidt has always put an emphasis on players delivering more for the team than just their basic job. In the second row Henderson can perform all the basic duties of a lock and he can carry like a back row.
To start a game like this I don’t think Ryan has played enough top-level rugby over the last 12 or 18 months. Starting Jordi Murphy is the smart choice.
Are Cian Healy and Keith Earls 100% fit? When they left the field in Cardiff last week I doubted whether we’d see them in the starting team today but there were so many other huge stories during the week it seems to me that their readiness has slipped under the radar.
Argentina are going to test our resources to the limit. Patched up players are going to start for Ireland and they’re not all going to last. We can expect the same level of attrition as we faced from France a week ago but there is so much more to Argentina’s game these days.
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They will try to slow our ball down and our rucking is going to have to be every bit as aggressive and efficient as it was last week. Every one of the Argentinian players seems to play with a secret seven on their backs.
Another thing that makes them hard to play against is that they have latitude on the pitch to take risks. They have a defensive system, of course, but it’s not rigid. Empowering players to make reads in defence is part of their rugby culture. This makes Joe Schmidt’s speciality of breaking down defences based on recurring player traits much more difficult.
They haven’t had a brilliant four years since the last World Cup but being part of the Rugby Championship in the southern hemisphere has exposed them to an incredibly high level of Test rugby and I think they’re reaping the benefit of that now. A few months ago there was a significant turning point: they beat South Africa in Durban, scoring a bunch of tries. Out wide they now pose the kind of threat that we never associated with them in the past.
They’re ambitious with the ball. There’s a lot of off-loads and short pop passes in their game and if it seems disjointed at times they’re not afraid to make mistakes. They still have the power to crash into the channels either side of the ruck but, the problem is, if we tighten our defence they have the skill and vision to move the ball wide.
This game will be brutal and I think it’s going to be extremely close. Our bench made a huge impact last week; we don’t have those kind of subs this week. How many of the players carrying knocks are going to last? Will Ireland win? Without Sexton it might be a bridge too far.