Philip Webster, Political Editor of The Times, examines the fallout from the resignation of seven junior members of Tony Blair’s Government this morning and asks how long the Prime Minister can now survive:
“It’s hugely damaging, hugely damaging for the Government, damaging for Tony Blair and damaging for Gordon Brown, his expected successor. There’s a feeling of meltdown around the place - one minister has gone, seven PPSs, in what appears to be a co-ordinated move.
“People have seized on the fact that Tony Blair has been weakened and they’re out to damage him. There’s no doubt that there is a calculated move to oust Mr Blair and he has gone on the attack in an extraordinary way by treating a very junior minister as though he were a member of the Cabinet, attacking him as disloyal, discourteous and wrong.
But although Mr Blair’s upped the ante, there’s very much a feeling of the Prime Minister being under siege in No 10.
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“It’s damaging to Mr Brown because the last thing that he wanted was to take over a riven Labour Party and there is a lot of bad blood around and will be even more if Mr Blair is forced out. He will be blamed for that even though he does not need to orchestrate any moves against Mr Blair.
“The opposition to Mr Blair has now gone well beyond the Brownite ranks and that’s where Downing Street has been out of touch. Even quite loyal Blair supporters feel now that the time is up and Downing Street never saw that coming.
“We’re waiting now to hear whether Tony Blair has got anything more to say. He’s in Downing Street and due to talk to Gordon Brown. Whether he will say more about his leadership plans, given the clamour, we will see, but at the moment there’s only one question - how long can he survive?
“I think the chances of him being able to complete the May 31 timetable, leaving Downing Street in July, are very slight and the pressure will be on him to hand over before the Scottish and Welsh elections next year so that they don’t become a referendum on his leadership and a new leader can use them as a launch pad for a two-year premiership.
“The Prime Minister is going to the Middle East at the weekend and he will have to say something before then, if only to give himself a breathing space before the Labour Conference starts on September 24.”