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Analysis: darkness behind the cheer

There is no doubt that the first fall in unemployment since May 2008 should be cause for cheer. After all, this time last year economists were forecasting that the jobless total could soar to 3 million - and instead it has steadied at 2.5 million.

But dig into the figures a little deeper, and the picture is mixed.

The first thing to note is that the total number of people in employment has fallen for the first time in a couple of months.

About 180,000 people lost their jobs in the three months to November. And this comes despite a sharp rise in the number of part-time workers - with 99,000 extra people joining the casual and freelance ranks over the period.

Since the unemployment rate is based on a survey, which classes anyone who answers ‘yes’ to the question “are you looking for work?” as unemployed - there is also a chance that some people have simply stopped looking - therefore dragging the total down.

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The total number of “inactive” people in the economy has now reached a record high of 8.05 million the Office for National Statistics says - boosted by the record number of young people going to college and university.

Another reason for the smaller than expected rise in unemployment is that many companies have cut working hours and pay rather than make redundancies. This has put a sharp downward pressure on wages, which rose by just 1.1 per cent in the three months to November, the smallest increase since records began in 2001. While this trend continues, consumer demand is likely to remain constrained, which will hamper the country’s economic recovery.

While unemployment is unlikely to spiral at the same rate as last year, the country is not out of the woods yet. The Bank of England’s regional agents reported this morning that some further job cuts were likely. Equally worryingly is that businesses are not planning to recruit any new workers, making it even more difficult for the unemployed to get back on the jobs ladder.