Two YouGov polls of Conservative party members show that while Boris Johnson’s brand has been dented, he has increased his chances of being the next prime minister.
For the first time ever, the next prime minister will be chosen directly by the Conservative party membership. YouGov has created a panel of Tory members and is using the same methodology we employed for our Labour leadership race last summer, which accurately predicted the scale of Jeremy Corbyn’s win.
The results show that while Mr Johnson’s net rating among Tory members has declined from 77 to 62, he leads the pack of leadership contenders with 43 per cent saying they will vote for him (up from 38 per cent a few days earlier), while 22 per cent support George Osborne (up from 20 per cent).
Some members may be disappointed that although Mr Johnson switched sides, he has gained overall in the leadership race, taking support from Sajid Javid (down from 11 per cent to 7 per cent), and Theresa May (down from 21 per cent to 19 per cent). Both have disappointed some of their supporters by staying loyal to the leadership having been perceived as Eurosceptics.
These changes are not mere fluctuations. We interviewed the same 1,005 members for each poll. In a head-to-head contest Mr Johnson beats Mr Osborne by 56 per cent to 38 per cent, Mr Osborne beats Mrs May by 46 per cent to 42 per cent, and Mr Johnson beats Mrs May by 59 per cent to 36 per cent.
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Support is strongly correlated with opinions about Brexit. Tory members support leaving the EU by 59 per cent to 31 per cent, with the numbers for Mr Johnson supporters at 80 per cent to 14 per cent. Mr Osborne’s supporters show the reverse preference, 54 per cent wanting to remain in versus 33 per cent who prefer to leave.
Only 42 per cent of Conservative party members judged Mr Cameron to have achieved a good deal for Britain versus 55 per cent who saw it as a bad deal.
Stephan Shakespeare is CEO and founder of YouGov