Great changes in the affairs of a nation tend to happen when the wave of popular opinion reaches tidal force. Whether it is measured in mass demonstrations on the street or ever-insistent opinion polls, the demand of the people is the essential ingredient of reform.
Ever since the Scottish National Party began its campaign for independence back in the 1930s that has been its strongest argument: that it represented the soul of the country and that it offered what the Scottish people desired. Its core belief was that independence was wanted, needed and ultimately demanded by those who truly hold the interests of Scotland at heart.
That dream is reflected in the document that set out yesterday the route chosen by the SNP and its leader Alex Salmond as the one they recommend to take the country towards its chosen destiny.
The White Paper proposing a referendum on independence bears on its cover an ancient script harking back to the days when Scotland ran its own affairs. It comes with stirring quotations about the power of nationhood and it stems from what the SNP government terms “the national conversation” — a dialogue with the people. This carries on the idea that what is on offer is a product of the collective democratic wish. We have talked it over, is its running theme, and this is what we want.
It has, however, encountered a little local difficulty. The wave of popular opinion, far from building to tsunami levels, has died back to a ripple. The harsh reality is that in the teeth of a recession, with the collapse of the country’s banking system, the rise of unemployment and the shrinking of the national economy, the notion of breaking free and winning independence, once a tantalising idea, has soured. Poll after poll shows that support for a separate Scotland has waned — from a high of close on 50 per cent only last year it has fallen back, at the last count, to barely 20 per cent.
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There has been one other barrier to the SNP’s vision of freedom. It was the election of an SNP government.
That may seem odd. When Mr Salmond stormed to victory in the Scottish elections two years ago, buoyed up by his own undoubted leadership qualities and by the breath of fresh air he brought to the Scottish political scene after decades of moribund Labour thinking, it seemed as if he and his party would become unstoppable.
At every level — education, health, culture, business — the SNP offered not only the possibility of independence but also the kind of new thinking that ushers in reform and renewal. True, his government commanded a slender majority of one in the Scottish Parliament and was condemned to operating as a minority administration. But such was the popular support Mr Salmond commanded that it seemed as if he could drive through change by the simple force of his personality.
For a time it looked as though he might. Popular measures that did not require parliamentary approval were driven through The Opposition looked feeble in comparison to the overweening self-confidence of SNP ministers.
The odd setback did nothing to dent the popularity of the party But steadily, inexorably, the grim reality of governing on an electoral shoestring began to tell. The heady promises — of boosting schools through small class sizes, scrapping unfair council taxes, curbing alcohol abuse and reforming penal policy — had to be cut back. From being a party that seemed unstoppable, it became one that was stopped by everything.
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And then there was the financial crash. It is one thing to head a country with two of the world’s greatest banks and a financial sector second to none. It is quite another to hold together an economy that gives every appearance of falling apart.
Faced with the need to hold on to jobs and keep business on an even keel, the Scots chose the safe option. Polls suggested that, though they wanted more powers for their Parliament, they preferred the safety of the Union to the uncertainty of a separate state.
Even that might have ceded ground to a party whose economic policy offered a way out of the economic morass. But, combing through the SNP’s White Paper, one encounters little in the way of fresh thinking. Indeed, at times it reads as if the recession had never happened. The ideas proffered instead are old, familiar and probably unworkable.
The idea of a referendum on independence now seems still-born. All the opposition parties in Scotland are against it, so the SNP’s Bill cannot progress through Parliament. But, at a more profound level, the very idea of opting for constitutional change has lost the force of its own argument.
What this suggests is something that Mr Salmond may find unpalatable, but that could in the end be the saving of his party. He should put aside the old dream that has sustained nationalism down the years, and focus instead on governing the country and trying to do it well. The next few years will be tough for any democratic leader, and Mr Salmond is no exception to that. If, however, he can demonstrate commitment, intelligence and sound judgment in managing his country’s affairs over the next couple of years, he will then be able to go to the polls with a decent record of achievement behind him.
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That, in the end, will give him a far more convincing story to tell the people than peddling an old and tired dream, which has been recycled once too often.