He has won both his starts and an aura has built up around him. This is partly because he is a son of the brilliant but ill-fated Dubai Millennium, who Sheikh Mohammed is convinced was the best horse he has ever had in his stable. The Sheikh and his entourage firmly believe the stallion passed on many of his qualities before his untimely death from grass sickness, and Dubawi’s two races so far have added to their belief.
In the second of them, the Superlative Stakes at the Newmarket July meeting, he started favourite and kept finding more. He won only narrowly but there was a certain style to his performance and his connections immediately started talking in terms of next year’s Derby. They still think the same way. “He is one of our best two-year-olds and we are expecting a big run,” says Saeed bin Suroor, the former Dubai policeman who trains the Sheikh’s Godolphin horses. “
We’ve had this race in mind for some time. There was also a race at Ascot that we were considering but this is a Group One and we need to find out more about Dubawi. He came back from his last race really good, he is in very good form and he has been working well. This is a biggish step up for him but he has the class.”
This seven-furlong test sponsored by Dunnes Stores is Ireland’s most important two-year-old race and has been won by subsequent Derby winners such as Santa Claus, Sir Ivor, Roberto and Sinndar while four of the past eight winners have gone on to win Classics.
In recent years it has been dominated by horses trained by Aidan O’Brien and he is responsible for three of the seven runners but the horse that should have been his main hope is on the sidelines. Oratorio won the Futurity Stakes over today’s course and distance in the manner of a horse who was going to play a big part in the National Stakes and the race was immediately nominated as his next target but he did not even figure among the five-day acceptors. “He is on a little rest,” says his trainer, who instead relies on Russian Blue, Rowan Tree and In Excelsis in his bid to win the race for the sixth time.
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Russian Blue, third in the Phoenix Stakes and the Prix Morny, has far better form than the other two. Rowan Tree was nearly five lengths behind Dubawi at Newmarket and In Excelsis has not raced since failing as favourite in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. “Russian Blue has been running well over five and six furlongs and we are putting blinkers on Rowan Tree to help him concentrate,” says O’Brien.
Riding arrangements suggest that In Excelsis may be a pacemaker but, as Russian Blue has shown such good speed over shorter trips and is unproven over seven furlongs, it’s quite conceivable that the gallop his stable companion sets will be moderate. This would be disastrous for the significance of the race and for some of the opposition, notably the Jim Bolger-trained Democratic Deficit, who floored the odds laid on Russian Blue in the Railway Stakes but then lost to Oratorio in the Futurity.
“That was a muddling, messy race and it didn’t suit Democratic Deficit,” says Bolger. “He’s a big, strong horse who likes to get on with it and after jumping out of the stalls they ran for 50 yards before slowing the gallop. They then ran on again only to slow it once more.” Bolger, who has yet to win the National Stakes, believes his colt has improved a fair bit in the intervening four weeks but he is going to need a strong gallop throughout.
Dermot Weld has won the race five times, most recently with Refuse To Bend two years ago, and he runs Elusive Double in the same colours. The colt won the Tyros Stakes in July but appeared to have his limitations exposed when only third in the Futurity.
The one that could just prove to be the rapidly improving future star that the race often throws up is Berenson. Named after an art dealer, he is trained by Tommy Stack and made a big impression when winning on his debut on the day of the Futurity. “We first realised he was going to be good when he did a few bits of work in May and June, and showed plenty,” says Stack’s son and assistant Fozzy. “We were hoping to run him on the Irish Derby weekend but he got cast in his box and had a haematoma on his side.
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“That set him back but we thought he was pretty smart and we had decided to run him in the National Stakes before he made his debut. He’s gone the right way since and we’re hopeful but it’s a big step from a maiden to a Group One.”
There have been offers to buy the colt and there will be bigger ones should he topple Dubawi today. Unless lack of pace ruins the race, though, the winner’s future will be more significant than its present.