For the second time in four years, George W. Bush enters a Republican convention with the polls indicating a close presidential contest. In the 2000 battle, though, Mr Bush, then Governor of Texas, was a less familiar figure to most Americans than Al Gore, the Vice-President. In his quest for re-election, Mr Bush does not want for lack of familiarity. John Kerry, his opponent, is the relatively unknown quantity. Familiarity does not automatically breed either contempt or adoration. The President has been extremely popular during parts of his tenure, notably the immediate aftermath of the attacks of September 11, 2001, but today many voters are less sure about him.
Conventions represent an opportunity for candidates to send a message. Mr Kerry used his nomination in Boston four weeks ago to remind the electorate about his past service in Vietnam and reassure them that he is qualified to serve as Commander-in-Chief in dangerous times. The task for Mr Bush is different. He needs to convince his fellow citizens that he has a credible domestic agenda and that his intervention in Iraq will ultimately make them safer. The President must persuade Americans that he is a tough moderate.
The organisation of this convention has been subtly honed to fit that theme. The three major speakers, besides Mr Bush himself and Dick Cheney, will be Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Governor of California, Senator John McCain and Senator Zell Miller. Mr Schwarzenegger, who has proved extremely shrewd as a politician, is on the most liberal spectrum of the Republican Party. Mr McCain was Mr Bush’s principal rival for the nomination four years ago and their relationship has remained uneasy. He has continued to blaze an independent path in Washington, so much so that his name is virtually synonymous with the term maverick. Mr Miller, a Democrat (albeit an atypically conservative one) from Georgia, will formally move the President’s nomination on Wednesday. He performed the same role for Bill Clinton in 1992.
To be a tough moderate requires more than surrounding oneself with the appropriate sort of characters. There are policy implications as well. At home, the chief of these involves the large federal budget deficit. Economic recovery should help to force the headline figure down, but it will still be bigger than it should be. This is because Mr Bush has enacted deep tax cuts, a significant (and necessary) increase in spending on defence and homeland security, and has also endorsed new expenditure on health and education. He needs to show that a tougher approach will follow if he is re-elected.
He also has to outline to Americans (and the wider world) how he intends to conduct the next stage of the War on Terror. Very considerable progress has been made in dismantling the al-Qaeda network. It remains, however, a menace. Mr Bush has to offer an indication of what his strategy will be here if he remains in the White House. If rogue groups such as Islamist terrorists are being forced back, how does the President intend to deal with rogue states such as Iran and North Korea and their ambitions to obtain rogue weapons? These will prove to be harder nuts to crack than Saddam Hussein. Mr Bush needs to demonstrate that, if awarded a second term, he will not only be tough but astute in very complicated circumstances.
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The President has long been an underestimated politician. He is far more adept on the campaign trail than commonly appreciated. If he is perceived as a tough moderate, then he will not be easy to shift from the Oval Office. If his opponent has a stronger claim on that title, a second term will not be forthcoming. Mr Bush now has the chance to present himself afresh to the American electorate — and an audience beyond them.