Nigel Farage prides himself on being a man of the people so when he tweeted recently that “Maybe, just maybe, we should have a second referendum on EU membership” it was presumably because he sensed the popular mood moving in that direction. The former Ukip leader swiftly backtracked under pressure from his fellow Eurosceptics, of course, but he was right about public opinion. A poll at the weekend found voters support having a final say on Brexit by a margin of 16 points (excluding the “don’t knows”), with 58 per cent favouring another vote once the terms of the deal are known, compared with 42 per cent against.
What once seemed politically out of the question is now moving into the realms of the possible. Nobody wants a re-run of the divisive and depressing 2016 referendum, but momentum is slowly but surely gathering behind the idea of giving the people the chance to approve or reject the prime minister’s deal.
It’s not only the Remain-supporting grandees Tony Blair and Sir Nick Clegg who support another popular vote but also Arron Banks, who bankrolled the Leave campaign and thinks a second referendum would let people “shout from the rooftops their support of a true Brexit”. Sir John Major has described the case for one as “credible”, warning that Britain’s departure from the EU cannot be dictated by the “tyranny of the majority”. Today, Lord Adonis, the Labour peer who recently resigned as head of the government’s infrastructure commission over Brexit, will table a motion in the House of Lords regretting that there is no provision in the EU withdrawal bill “for the opinion of the people to be secured” on the eventual settlement, putting the question of a second referendum firmly on the political agenda. Although his aim is not to secure a change in the law at this stage, a cross-party alliance of peers including Lord Hain, the former Labour Northern Ireland secretary, and Lord Newby, the leader of the Lib Dems in the Lords, will speak in favour of the motion, indicating growing support for the idea.
An amendment formally requiring a fresh referendum is then likely to be tabled to a later bill implementing the withdrawal agreement, on which parliament has been promised a “meaningful vote”. Lord Adonis has already consulted lawyers about the wording and been advised that it would be possible to insert a clause into the legislation, which is expected to be tabled in the autumn.
Although some Brexiteers will paint this as an establishment attempt to overturn the will of the people, the Labour peer, who recently fought a populist campaign against university vice-chancellor pay, says it would just be the politicians giving back control to the voters. “This is a first referendum on Mrs May’s Brexit terms and whether people like them,” he says. “It’s not a re-run of the 2016 referendum when they were offered a beautiful Brexit house before the survey had been carried out.”
Advertisement
So far the Liberal Democrats are the only political party supporting another referendum, but many Labour MPs also want one and Nicola Sturgeon has indicated that the SNP might back a second vote too. Although Jeremy Corbyn made clear at the weekend that he was against a second vote, insisting “that ship has sailed”, some Labour pro-Europeans think that their leader might yet shift if he believes it is in his political interest to do so. Having prided himself on the purity of his principles for decades, Mr Corbyn is now more willing to compromise for the sake of power.
The opposition has already flip-flopped relentlessly over Europe so another change would not be surprising. Certainly a leader who champions party democracy will find it increasingly difficult to ignore the fact that an overwhelming majority of Labour Party members support a second referendum, with backing particularly high among the young voters who chanted Mr Corbyn’s name at the Glastonbury festival. “The battle for Corbyn and the referendum is just beginning,” one former cabinet minister says.
In any case some Tory MPs believe there could be a Commons majority for a referendum without the Labour front bench, if the terms of the deal are sufficiently unfavourable. One Conservative former minister believes “moderate Labour” and “sensible Tories” might join forces to get a second popular vote through. “I don’t think anyone has appreciated the very grave concerns a number of us have, given what we know about a likely deal. Our only chance is for both groups to break free and turn this madness around.”
Ministers could also resign from the government to vote for another referendum if they believe the final settlement is against the national interest. “If it comes to a choice between party and country you have to put your country first,” one MP says.
The political situation is febrile. The local elections in May will alter the balance of power in both main parties. If, as is widely expected, the Tories do badly in London, that will undermine Theresa May’s authority and boost the cause of the Labour pro-Europeans because the success will clearly be associated with Sadiq Khan, the London mayor who has called for Britain to remain in the single market and held open the prospect of a second referendum.
Advertisement
The Brexit secretary David Davis recently explained why he had abandoned his support for the customs union by saying: “As the facts changed, I changed my mind.” The British people had no facts about Brexit when they voted for it, just conflicting false statistics promising economic meltdown or £350 million a week extra for the NHS. Once they have the details of our future relationship with the EU they should have the right to decide what they think about it. Nobody knows what the result would be but at least the question would then be resolved.
Britain is as divided as ever over Europe, with worrying differences growing between old and young as well as between the various parts of the country. The two main parties are split from top to bottom on the most important issue of the day. It is extraordinary that a year and a half after the Brexit vote neither the cabinet nor shadow cabinet can reach agreement on what it should mean.
There is a majority for a “soft Brexit” in the Commons and the Lords but the prime minister may well end up with a harder version. If parliament and the executive are gridlocked over the terms of the departure, another referendum could end up being the only way to resolve a constitutional crisis. What now seems only possible could soon start to feel inevitable.
