It is extremely difficult to interpret the results of Friday’s general election, but what can be said with certainty is that the electorate did not deliver a coherent message.
It is wrong for the hard left to claim that the result was a vindication of their position and consequently that they should carry on during the next Dail term in the same manner they did in the last. Sinn Fein and the Anti-Austerity-Alliance/People Before Profit look set to gain a combined 29 seats between them out of a 158-seat chamber, which would put them 50 seats shy of an overall majority.
Then again, there is no apparent alternative unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail do the once-unthinkable. A grand alliance between the two biggest parties would offer the possibility of a stable government over the next five years, but it would mask deep underlying problems.
The Irish parliamentary system, modelled on Westminster, is based on clear divisions between government and opposition. It works well when there are two dominant parties that change place every few elections, but the political landscape has fundamentally changed in the past decade.
The 2011 general election was the first time in the history of the state that combined support for Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour fell below 80 per cent. Indeed, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail regularly polled over 70 per cent in most elections. The support for the big two was just under 50 per cent in this election.
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There will be eight parties and alliances as well as 22 independents represented in the next Dail, which isn’t suitable for a system that works most effectively with a clear majority government.
The cabinet exerts undue influence on Irish political life. The decision-making process is so centralised that it renders most TDs, whether sitting on the government or opposition benches, effectively redundant. A second effect of this set-up is that it increases the disconnect between the government and the electorate.
This is one of the reasons that voters returned a record number of independent TDs in this election, each with a long list of local demands.
Denmark offers a useful example of an alternative form of parliamentary democracy. In that country it is very rare that parties form majority coalitions; instead minority governments are cobbled together and push through legislation by forming alliances with the opposition on a case-by-case basis.
It is a very effective way of including opposition TDs in the legislative process as it puts the onus on them to get involved. If parties exclusively want to use the parliament to protest, then they are exposed very quickly.
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Also, when minority governments are forced to become much more collaborative to enact legislation, it makes the whole system more transparent and accountable.
The way our government operates is opaque and shrouded in secrecy, particularly the budget-setting process.
The outgoing government promised a democratic revolution when it came to power five years ago. It was a pledge that turned out to be long on rhetoric and short on follow-through. It has guillotined its bills, closing down Dail debate and forcing through legislation, at a rate unequalled by previous administrations.
Denmark also has a robust system of local government and devolved decision-making. Again, this is something that Ireland should emulate. More focus has shifted to the effectiveness of local councils since the property tax was introduced. A robust system of local government ensures that the decision-making process does not get bogged down at any level.
Whether there is a genuine appetite for change in this country will be revealed over the next few months. One thing is for certain though, the current system is broken, and the sooner that is addressed, the better.