With this man, there can be no certainties, least of all the happy ending. Aptly, for one whose addictive personality has dragged him to the brink of self-destruction, he must take one day at a time, while the rest of us hold our breath for him.
Just as it is hard to grasp that this comeback is under way, that Kieren Fallon has beaten the odds yet again, so it must be difficult for him to comprehend the depths of goodwill that accompany him as he returns to a sport that has more than once been inclined to disown him.
It is not only hardened punters who will welcome him back. Racing - the sport, the entertainment - has missed him sorely in the three years since he last rode in this country.
Of course, with Fallon, the entertainment has not always been wholesome. It would be crass to dismiss all his misdemeanours and adorn him with a halo. The appeal of Fallon, leaving aside his qualities as the most effective Flat jockey of his generation, is in the image of a loveable rogue, a flawed genius. He lends himself to such cliches but never to facile stereotyping, for no one is sure what to expect next. Probably even Fallon himself.
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He says he has his life in order now. He says he is happy for the first time in years. And the evidence supports him. He looks healthy and formidably fit, his eyes are clear and sharp and he smiles a lot. Having successfully negotiated a rigorous drug testing programme, Fallon has satisfied all the requirements laid down for his return bar the one that will trouble him most - riding winners.
If the happy script is followed, he will have to wait no longer than the first race at Lingfield Park today to clear that worry. Then he will ride a group one winner at Haydock tomorrow and another in Germany the next day on Youmzain, who will go on to land the Arc next month...
But what if such dreams turn to ashes? What if success is elusive and the old magic refuses to flow? Will that revive the black moods, the vulnerable nature, the demons that so nearly destroyed him? For the chances are that the road back to where he wants to be will not be entirely smooth and the newly smiley Kieren will face swift and earnest challenges.
It is because of this risk, as much as what has passed before, that Racing plc is necessarily restrained in acclaiming the resumption of his career. Jon Ryan, communications director of the British Horseracing Authority, sums it up. “It would be wrong of us to trumpet the news value of it,” he said. “But Kieren is at an age when we all hope he makes an impact for the right reasons.”
So the ardent hope is that Fallon has grown up, shed that childishly suggestible side that always endangered him. Age itself will be no barrier. Though his life has been so overburdened with crisis that he must sometimes feel 44 going on 65, he has the frame and energy of a man ten years younger.
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Fallon knows he will be nervous today. He will bring to Lingfield all the shyness and insecurities that make him so engaging. But he will also bring a hunger and focus that he must retain if this is not to be another false dawn. This time, Kieren. Maybe this time.