More than 90 per cent of adults in England have coronavirus antibodies as rising immunity levels help to drive cases down.
The final phase of vaccination in adults, coupled with a surge of cases in young people, mean that 80 per cent of those aged 16-24 had antibodies in the week of July 12, up from 67 per cent two weeks earlier. Overall, 94 per cent of English adults have antibodies.
More than half of 16- and 17-year-olds have acquired their antibodies through infection, as ministers approve vaccination of all 1.4 million people in this age group yesterday.
Office for National Statistics data shows antibody levels have increased by two percentage points overall since the last figures were released two weeks ago, with little sign of waning immunity in older groups. Antibody levels are at 96 per cent among people in their fifties and at 94 per cent among the over-80s, compared with 95 per cent in early May.
Rhiannon Yapp, senior statistician for the ONS infection survey, said that antibody levels “remain high across the UK”, adding: “Although highest among older ages, we have seen antibody levels increase among younger ages as more receive their vaccines.”
Advertisement
While having antibodies does not guarantee immunity, Professor Jonathan Ball of the University of Nottingham said: “With more than 90 per cent of people testing positive for the presence of coronavirus antibodies, it’s no wonder we are seeing a decline in cases.”
However, he added: “If natural immunity to this virus is similar to that generated [by other] seasonal coronaviruses, then it is likely to be short-lived. This is another reason to get fully jabbed.”
Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia said that the figures were “highly reassuring”. He pointed out that as the data went only to mid-July and the fact that it takes eight to ten days for antibodies to be detectable after an infection, it was an “underestimate”, with the wave of cases last month likely to have driven it even higher.
In the latest figures, 50 per cent of 16-year-olds and 59 per cent of 17-year-olds showed antibodies, up from 38 per cent and 44 per cent two weeks earlier. Hunter said that given the recent surge in cases in this group, “We can expect over two thirds of 16 and 17-year-olds to already have been infected and to have developed or be about to develop antibodies soon.”
He added that vaccinating this group “may be the correct option, even though most will already be immune, but these results should reduce the demand to vaccinate even younger teenagers”.
Advertisement
The ONS does not look at under-16s but Hunter said it was “reasonable to assume that the majority of younger teenagers will also have had their initial infection and have some degree of immunity”.
The levels of antibodies at present would probably have been enough with the original strain of coronavirus to reach herd immunity — where cases are driven down because the virus runs out of people to infect. But given the more infectious Delta variant, some scientists have argued that it is likely to be impossible to reach this level through vaccination alone and widespread infections are inevitable.
Others suggest that given immunity is likely to wane, Britain may never reach the level at which cases fall away to nothing, but that people will be periodically reinfected with a virus that increasingly causes only mild illness similar to the common cold.
