Record numbers will miss out on university this autumn, the year before fees go up, according to figures seen by The Times that suggest almost 200,000 will fail to find a place.
Applications for undergraduate degrees rose by 1.5 per cent year on year to reach the highest number ever, according to University and College Admissions Service (Ucas) data.
It means more than 670,000 people are looking for a place with only 479,000 on offer.
From 2012, universities will be allowed to expand the number of places they offer to students with AAB and above at A level. But the change, set out in last week’s White Paper, comes too late for this year’s applicants. Places in clearing are expected to be limited and snapped up quickly. Students who drop just one grade could find it difficult to persuade admissions tutors to take them on.
Mary Curnock Cook, the chief executive of Ucas, said: “The rise in applicant numbers does appear to be levelling off, but no one should be in any doubt that this remains a very competitive year for entry to higher education.”
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A collapse in the number taking a gap year — down 50 per cent from last year — and 150,000 19-year-olds applying have contributed to the rise.
Pam Tatlow, chair of million+, a higher education think-tank, said the situation might not be alleviated next year by proposals in the White Paper.
“The Government has got to be careful what it wishes for because it will see expansion in liberal arts but not in science courses,” Ms Tatlow said. “It’s not as straightforward as the Government thinks. There are not necessarily more places for AAB students in the subjects that people want and where they want to study.”
University Alliance has warned that the move to expand elite institutions will bring dozens of lower ranked universities to their knees.
It will create a “squeezed middle” of lower-ranking, higher-charging universities, according to Libby Hackett, director of University Alliance.
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“This will drive down quality in the majority of the sector,” Ms Hackett warned.
Only 25 per cent of undergraduates will attend £9,000 a year institutions, she estimated. “The rest will go to less well resourced universities [as a result of proposals in the White Paper],” she said.
Many universities would be “non-viable” as a result of the changes.
“With 20,000 places taken from them 5 per cent year on year there would be nowhere to go because they can’t deliver the same quality in a £7,500 market,” she said.