Young, talented workers aren’t just thinking about leaving Toronto. They’re already on their way out, and the fallout will be enormous

Policymakers from all three orders of government should take these insights seriously.

It is one thing to muse about leaving; it is another to make the move. And Statistics Canada data confirms residents in the GTA are increasingly moving to more affordable locations in other provinces. Twelve years ago, the number of people moving out of the GTA to other provinces was equally balanced by the number moving into the area. That is no longer the case. Last year over 16,000 more residents moved out of the GTA to other provinces than moved to the GTA from other provinces. Additionally, nearly 100,000 more people moved out of the GTA to other, less expensive parts of Ontario last year than moved in. The data shows that, although some seniors are cashing out of their properties and leaving the city, it is disproportionately young adults making the move. More than half of the net leavers are between the ages of 20 and 38, along with many children under the age of five.

If we don’t fix this, and soon, Toronto will lack the young, talented workers that are at the heart of any city’s economy.

I have taught fourth-year undergraduate students at Ivey Business School at Western University in London, Ontario, for the past 18 years. This experience has provided insight into how the views and culture of ambitious young people about to enter the job market have changed over time. A decade ago, almost all my students were looking for the best possible job to launch their career, regardless of the location. Typically, this meant taking a job in Toronto, with some moving to Vancouver, New York, or Silicon Valley in California. Recently, my students have been prioritizing location first and job quality second. This is leading them to take lower-paying jobs with less potential for career advancement in cities where they can afford a higher quality of life, like in Edmonton and Halifax, or less expensive U.S. cities like Phoenix, Arizona. They are making the best decision they can with the options available to them. But turning down the best possible job because of cost-of-living concerns may not be good for their career. It certainly isn’t good for the economy.

I recognize that my business students do not represent the typical 23-year-old Canadian. Many will leave school with jobs that pay higher than the Canadian average. A disproportionate number will enter the one per cent before too long. But this only amplifies my concern. If these students feel that even they cannot make it in Toronto, how is the city going to retain middle-class workers, from teachers to nurses to mechanics? No community can thrive without a robust middle class. Toronto risks becoming a polarized community of only those rich enough to stay and those too poor to leave.

Toronto’s lack of attainable, family housing can be corrected through smart public policy. But there is no single fix. It will take changes in zoning regulations, tax policy and to the building code.

The province can start by adopting the recommendations from its two-year-old Housing Affordability Task Force report. Cities can look to the Blueprint for More and Better Housing for ideas. But we need to act fast or the exodus of young, middle-class families from Toronto and Ontario will continue.