2024 NFL QB rankings 1.0: A look at how are things are shaking out during offseason
Tim WaltersIt's July and the NFL is off for summer break. Yet, I still can't help but yearn for the NFL.
Given our nation's hunger for football, I figured I'd get things started early by ranking the QBs and QB situations of all the teams in the NFL.
Think it's easy? I challenge you to list out the 32 teams and intelligibly rank them. There's no way to make everyone happy.
I know it's early, and this listing certainly will change. Throughout the season, I plan to update my rankings.
But here is the "Mr. 321 QB Rankings 1.0" for the summer of 2024.
(If you're wondering why I'm referred to as "Mr. 321," it's because I grew up on Florida's Space Coast [area code 321 because of liftoff] and covered the space program prior to becoming a USA Today Network Sports Editor for two newspapers, including Florida Today in Melbourne and the Times-Union in Jacksonville, where we are the top news source for the Jaguars.)
So, without further ado, check out my listings and see if you'd rank them differently.
No. 32: Denver Broncos: Jarrett Stidham or Bo Nix
If Stidham remains the starter, this is the worst QB situation in the NFL. If Nix starts, it still may be. At age 24, Nix may develop faster than most rookies, but he who knows? The Broncos would have been ranked higher on the list had they kept Russell Wilson.
No. 31: Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy
You won’t find many starting QBs stats-wise worse than Darnold over their career, but Jarrett Stidham is one of those guys, so it allows the Vikings to not be last. McCarthy, like Nix, is another wild card when it comes to NFL skills. This seems like a proper rating for now.
No. 30: New York Giants: Daniel Jones
Jones was a disaster last season and I’m just not sure how much better he can be. He had one decent season in 2022, and he got a deal that was way more than he should have received because of it. His career numbers are well below average, his best season being 3,205 yards passing and 15TDs with 5 INTs.
No. 29: Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels
Daniels is a gifted athlete and he might not be the best passer off the bat, but he’ll show some flash with his legs, ala early Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III. Regardless, I’d rather have him than any of the aforementioned QBs.
No. 28: Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson
All we’ve ever heard is he’s an amazing athlete filled with potential. But at some point, potential has to perform. Richardson underachieved at Florida and sat most of his rookie season injured after being hurt twice early in the season. Show me something and you’ll move up the list.
No. 27: Las Vegas Raiders: Aidan O’Connell or Gardener Minshew
Neither of these guys are bad. They’re just not good. O’Connell was a serviceable starter last season while Minshew was an able fill-in and almost made the playoffs with the Colts. The Raiders lack overall talent and either mediocre QB will struggle because of it.
No. 26: New England Patriots: Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye
Jacoby Brissett has done a decent job everywhere he’s been. Which includes five stops in eight years. Drake Maye looks promising, but until he plays in an NFL offense, I don’t want to overrate him based on potential. It’s Brissette, not Maye, that has the Patriots this far down the list.
No. 25: Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
Is Watson’s career done? Since returning from his 2021 suspension and getting a huge deal prior to the 2022 season, he just hasn’t lived up to what he once could have. The Browns have talent — Joe Flacco led them to the playoffs last season — but I’m just not sure what Watson has left.
No. 24: Tennessee Titans: Will Levis
I probably like Will Levis more than most. He showed against the Miami Dolphins on "Monday Night Football" that he’s got fire and passion, leading his team to a dramatic victory. If you extrapolate his numbers, he would have had around 3,500 yards had he played a full season. That wouldn't have been bad for a rookie. Let’s see what he can do as a sophomore who starts from the get-go.
No. 23: Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams
Who is the greatest Bears QB in team history? I don’t know, either. Williams has the skillset and athleticism to be great. But Chicago swallows QBs. Case-in-point, Justin Fields. I’m putting Williams here based on raw potential, but it’s hard to predict if he can lead the team to its first winning season since 2018.
No. 22: Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
His rookie season was a disaster, but was it his fault? The Panthers franchise is a mess, led from the top by drink-throwing owner David Tepper. Young played in 16 of 17 games, missing just one game to injury despite being sacked the second-most times in the NFL — 62. That's commendable. Despite his size, he showed a toughness that warrants him being at this point on the list.
No. 21: Pittsburgh Steelers: Russell Wilson or Justin Fields
Wilson has been on the decline for the past few years. His time in Denver was mostly awful. Can Mike Tomlin resurrect Wilson’s career, or will Justin Fields take over the job? They say when you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any. I guess we’ll have to see.
No. 20: Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
Murray played well after returning from injury in 2023. He played in eight games, throwing for 1,799 yards with 10 TDs and 5 INTs. Arizona was devoid of offensive talent, so for Murray to do what he did is impressive. He also ran for 244 yards and three TDs. I expect Murray to move up these rankings as the season goes on in 2024.
No. 19: Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith
Smith has definitely been one of the NFL’s feel-good stories over the past two seasons, but he had a noticeable drop-off in 2023 from where he was in 2022. He missed two games due to injury and had more than 600 fewer passing yards and 10 fewer touchdown passes. Let’s see if he can get back to 4,000 yards under new head coach Mike Macdonald.
No. 18: New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr
Derek Carr almost had the Saints in the playoffs in his first year in New Orleans. He’s had a bit of a drop-off numbers-wise over the past two years after having a career-best 4,800 yards in 2021. The offense will look similar in 2024 as it was in 2023. Carr will need more than the 3,878 yards he had in 2023 if he wants to get the Saints to the next level.
No. 17: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield should have been the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year IMHO. He led the Bucs to the playoffs in a year where the team was picked to finish last in the division after losing Tom Brady. Yet, he threw for more than 4,000 yards. He’s set up to have another great season given the offensive weapons he has returning.
No. 16: Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins
Cousins tore his Achilles halfway through 2023, and it was a shame because he was having himself a season. It seemed as though Atlanta believed he can return to his old self after the injury, given his new four-year, $180 million deal. But then they drafted Michael Penix Jr., an odd thing to do after awarding such a big contract. I still think he can return to form and have a great season.
No. 15: New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers
I could have gone anywhere from No. 8-15 with Rodgers. But given he’s coming off an Achilles tear at age 40, I’m going to start with him this low and see if he can move up the rankings as the year goes on. I’m not sure if Ayahuasca has healing powers, but given how much he seems to like it, maybe we’ll all think we’re hallucinating if he gets the Jets to the playoffs in 2024.
No. 14: Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
Am I ranking Tua too low? Maybe. Sure, he led the NFL in passing yards last year, but he also didn’t win a playoff game. And harken back to 2022 when he missed much of the season with multiple concussions. Tua is good, but Tyreek Hill and his offensive cast make him better. The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game in more than two decades. Breaking that streak will help his standing on this list.
No. 13: Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
We’re all still waiting for Lawrence to take that grand step forward. He hasn’t been bad, he just hasn’t dazzled. He’s gone over 4,000 yards in both seasons under Doug Pederson, but he’s also been a turnover machine. He’s got the big contract. He’s got his best cast of offensive weapons. Now he needs to make that leap and show he can live up to the hype he’s received since winning a national championship at Clemson.
No. 12: Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
Ranking Hurts is difficult. He took a step back after three straight years of improvement. It didn’t help that his defense went on vacation halfway through the season. Most concerning was his 15 INTs after having just 6 the prior year in his march toward the Super Bowl. He’s never thrown for 4,000 yards and as he gets older, he’ll become less of a running threat. He had 600 yards and 15 rushing TDs in 2023. Is that sustainable in 2024?
No. 11: Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
Jordan Love proved he’s worthy of being the successor to Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre in Green Bay. Things started out a bit rocky for Love in his first season as a starter, but as he became more comfortable, he had a fantastic season. He led the Packers into the playoffs and nearly knocked off the 49ers after ousting Dallas. He’s another one on the cusp of greatness, but he needs to perform for more than one season.
No. 10: San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy
When will Purdy get the respect he deserves? He was fifth in passing in 2024 and took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. And he certainly wasn’t the reason they lost it. He’s 17-5 as a starter over his short his career. There’s no shame in losing to Patrick Mahomes. However, if he wants to enter the “Elite” category, he will have to get over that hurdle, or at least have another great season.
No. 9: Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
This is probably too low for Herbert. Yes, he has a big arm. Yes, he mitigates interceptions. But he also can’t find postseason success. In limited play last year, he was just 5-8. And go back to the prior year where in the wild-card round of the playoffs, the Chargers jumped out to a 27-0 lead over the Jaguars only to collapse and lose 31-30. He no longer has Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. This might be another challenging season for Herbert and the Chargers.
No. 8: Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
If Stafford can stay injury free, he deserves to be this high on the list. Over the course of his career, the years where he plays the majority of the season, he’s a top-notch talent. He missed two games last year and still was able to amass 4,000 yards and 24 TDs while leading the Rams to a wild-card playoff spot. He has Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, essentially a cheat code of wide receivers.
No. 7: Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Dak had the best all-around season of his career in 2023. The Cowboys rolled to a 12-5 regular-season record and an AFC East crown. Unfortunately, Dak’s playoff futility continued as the Cowboys bowed out in the first weekend of the playoffs in the wild card round to the Green Bay Packers. No question Dak will have another great year, but can he exorcise his playoff demons?
No. 6: Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
Too high for Goff to be ranked here? I’m sure I’ll get criticized, but a quick look at what he’s done over his career shows he’s been one of the best QBs in the game, especially since 2018. He had the Lions on the cusp of the Super Bowl last year and he’ll have them contending again in 2024.
No. 5: Houston Texans: CJ Stroud
Too high for Stroud? If he can avoid the sophomore slump, I think you’ll see this is a good spot for him until we know more about him. But if his rookie season is any inkling of what he’ll be, then he’ll be in this Top 5 for a long time.
No. 4: Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Big arm. Check. Running ability. Check. Freak athlete. Check. Unfortunately, he’s still too reckless with the football. He threw a career-high 18 INTs in 2023. He’s another one that needs to get into a Super Bowl. Given all top four QB spots are in the AFC, good luck with that.
No. 3: Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Injuries sidelined Burrow for much of 2023, but I expect a big bounce back season. His skill is easily among the best and he has plenty of weapons to supplement him.
No. 2: Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson
Jackson had a career-high for passing yards in 2023 while still rushing for more than 800 yards, earning his second MVP. He’s maturing as a quarterback but he needs to find his way into a Super Bowl.
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Ric Flair famously said, “To be the man, you have to beat the man.” Until someone not named Tom Brady can knock off Mahomes, he’s the best thing going today.