Things seemed pretty cut and dried on the New Orleans Saints running back depth chart — at least until the last day of the veteran minicamp.
Alvin Kamara, who is entering his eighth NFL season and is poised to own just about every major franchise rushing record, skipped out on the third and final minicamp practice as a way to express his displeasure with his current contract and the state of negotiations.
Technically, Kamara has two years remaining on his current contract, but the reality is he’s playing on the final year of the deal. Kamara is scheduled to make $22 million in base salary next season, none of which is guaranteed, and by releasing him the Saints could recoup about $19 million in cap savings while eating $10 million in dead cap fees.
Because of the way the running back position has been devalued in the NFL, Kamara’s situation is relatively complex. He is still a talented player and should be a focal point in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense. But he will also turn 29 during training camp and is coming off a couple of down seasons.
All of a sudden, the running back group became a lot more interesting as a discussion topic for the 2024 season. Let’s dive into it.
Current roster
- Alvin Kamara
- Jamaal Williams
- Kendre Miller
- Jordan Mims
- James Robinson
- Jacob Kibodi
- Adam Prentice (fullback)
- Zander Horvath (fullback)
Burning question
Can Kamara still be a star in this new offense? Will we even find out?
Let’s tackle the second portion of this question first: Kamara skipped out on the final practice of the team’s mandatory three-day minicamp because of a contract dispute, and it feels likely that this still will be a topic of discussion when the team reports for training camp next month.
Still, it feels like this can’t end without either some sort of agreement between the Saints and Kamara, or with an unsatisfied Kamara ultimately showing up at some point during training camp. Even for someone as decorated as Kamara, this is a bit of a prove-it year, as he is coming off a couple of down seasons in New Orleans and is nearing his 29th birthday.
Assuming Kamara does suit up for the team, this feels like an offensive system that can get a lot more out of him than what we’ve seen the last few years. It’s not hard to find examples to back that idea up.
Christian McCaffrey posted career highs in rushing (1,459 yards) and yards per carry (5.4) with San Francisco last year. Raheem Mostert posted his first career 1,000-yard season at age 31 and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (18) for Miami while splitting carries with De’Von Achane (103 carries, 800 yards, eight touchdowns). Devin Singletary enjoyed a career year with Houston, rushing for a career-best 898 yards in Houston’s pass-heavy offense.
The common thread among all those players: Their offensive play-caller was either Kyle Shanahan or someone who previously coached under Shanahan. Kubiak spent last year on Shanahan’s staff.
There’s plenty to be concerned about with Kamara’s drop in production. His long run last season was 17 yards, and among qualified running backs he finished with the NFL's fourth-worst rushing yards over expectation per carry (-0.51), according to Next Gen Stats. Pro Football Reference has tracked advanced statistics since 2018; from 2018-21, Kamara averaged 22.8 broken tackles per season. In 2022-23, he managed just seven both seasons.
This season, then, should offer the most compelling evidence yet as to whether Kamara’s recent dip is because of his own decline or because of the situation he’s been in — assuming he’s playing, of course.
The same is true, to a lesser extent, for his primary backups Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller, who combined to rush for 462 yards and two touchdowns on 147 attempts last season (3.1 yards per carry).
Bold prediction
Kamara will sit out a portion of training camp before he and the Saints reach a compromise on a new contract that will keep him in New Orleans for the next two years at least.
Kamara then responds with his best season since 2020, flourishing in the new offensive scheme and posting a new career high in rushing.
Miller establishes himself as the No. 2 option midway through the season and gives the Saints a dynamic complement to Kamara.
