What happens when Hurricane Beryl enters the Gulf? Track, strength is uncertain.

There's still a lot of uncertainty about Hurricane Beryl after the next few days, including the storm's track and strength once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. 

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Beryl, a powerful Category 5 hurricane, had winds of 165 mph Tuesday morning and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph. Breyl broke records Monday night, becoming the earliest storm in history to reach Category 5 strength in the Atlantic. 

Beryl will stay over water Tuesday, but may weaken some as it interferes with strong vertical wind shear, the NHC said. The storm is still expected reach Jamaica Wednesday as a major hurricane. The island country is under a hurricane warning. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rain and catastrophic winds are expected.

Beryl's track in the Gulf

Beryl is expected to continue to move west-northwest, then shift west. The storm will be steered by a subtropical ridge, also known as a heat dome, sitting over a portion of the southern U.S. 

But NHC forecasters said Tuesday morning there's still uncertainty about Beryl's track after 72 hours out, when the storm is expected to move over the Yucatan and enter the Gulf of Mexico. How strong Beryl will be at that time is also not certain, National Hurricane Center forecasters Lisa Bucci and Eric Blake said at 5 a.m. CST Tuesday.

"The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid," the NHC discussion with Bucci and Blake said. "There's still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 hours, with the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico." 

Beryl will weaken, but by how much?

Beryl is expected to weaken as it moves through the Caribbean, and over the Yucatan Peninsula, but model guidances also don't agree on strength beyond 72 hours, Bucci and Blake said. 

"Factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican elevated terrain, dry air intrusions and the structure of the vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening," Bucci and Blake said. "The models show quite a range of solutions, with guidance between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears the Yucatan Peninsula."

What does this mean for Louisiana? 

Louisiana is not currently in Beryl's "cone of uncertainty" and impact is not forecasted, but there's too much uncertainty around the future track to be certain of Beryl's impacts once it enters the Gulf, the NHC said. 

The NHC said the Yucatan, Belize, Jamaica, Cuba, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue monitoring Beryl's movements at hurricanes.gov.