The "cone of uncertainty" forecast for Hurricane Beryl officially includes Louisiana, but after the storm makes landfall in Texas and significantly weakens, according to the latest tropics update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Beryl made landfall over the Yucatan on Friday morning as a Category 1 and weakened to a tropical storm over land by 1 p.m.
The storm is forecast to slow down, become better organized and strengthen into a hurricane again in the Gulf, NHC forecaster Jack Beven said Friday.
A decrease in wind shear, the weakening of a subtropical ridge and an increase in upper-level divergence will contribute to Beryl's strength at landfall, predicted to be Monday morning in south Texas near the Mexico border.
If those factors are in alignment, "Beryl could strengthen more than currently forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than forecast," Beven said.
The projected track shifted more north and slightly east at 10 a.m. Friday, putting Louisiana into the storm's "cone of uncertainty" for the first time after landfall.
"Overall, the guidance favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the right," Beven said. "Additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary later today.
There's a 100-mile track error at play for a forecast that is three days out, Beven said, so there's still a lot of uncertainty on landfall and impacts. Storm surge and hurricane watches for parts of northeast Mexico and south-central Texas are imminent.
Southwest Louisiana would see more minimal impacts, as Beryl would be significantly weaker, a tropical storm or depression, once it moves over land Tuesday and Wednesday.
Effects from Beryl
Beryl, a history-making hurricane, has caused damage on many islands in the Caribbean and Atlantic.
The Yucatan will experience dangerous winds, heavy rain and storm surge throughout Friday.
Rip currents will cause life-threatening conditions across the Gulf Coast starting Friday and will last through the weekend.
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