Hurricane Beryl's track beyond the next three days is getting increasingly challenging to predict, and the "cone of uncertainty" once the storm enters the Gulf shifted north Tuesday afternoon to include Texas.
The Category 5 storm had winds of 155 mph at 4 p.m. CST Tuesday and is expected to weaken some due to wind shear, but still be a major hurricane when it moves over Jamaica in the next 24 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center forecast.
After moving over Jamaica's terrain and dealing with shear, Beryl is expected to weaken before moving over the Cayman Islands in the next 36 hours, then over the Yucatan in 60-72 hours, said Jack Beven, a forecaster with the NHC in Miami.
But after that, Beven said, there's uncertainty about what Beryl will do next as it moves into the warm Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Here's why:
- There could be a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern U.S. that has been steering Beryl west-northwest, then more west toward the Yucatan. The break in the heat dome could steer the storm more north.
- The GFS model shows a more northerly turn, while two other models continue to show Beryl moving more west toward Mexico.
- The NHC's 4 p.m. "cone of uncertainty" track now shows a potential landfall near the Mexico-Texas border Sunday afternoon. "This part of the forecast track lies between these extremes near the consensus models and has a "higher than normal amount of uncertainty," Beven said.
A look into the eye 👁️ of Hurricane Beryl today. Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, though it was downgraded Tuesday to Category 4.
— Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) July 2, 2024
For up to date forecasts visit https://t.co/96ZlCzpVcZ#hurricaneberyl pic.twitter.com/Dd81YzOuuM
Will Beryl strengthen in the Gulf?
The models also do not agree how strong Beryl could get once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
- The models all show Beryl should weaken over the next 60 hours, but the rate of weakening has slowed.
- Beryl is now forecast to still be near a major hurricane when it passes over the Cayman Islands and a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.
- What happens after that is uncertain, but models do agree that the Beryl will strengthen some when it enters the Gulf, Beven said.
Beryl is still forecast to be a tropical storm at a Sunday landfall. Where that will occur is still largely uncertain.
People who live in Mexico, Texas and Louisiana should continue to monitor Beryl's movements at hurricanes.gov.