Hurricane Beryl, disorganized and lacking an eye structure, made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula Friday morning and is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it moves over land.
UPDATE: Louisiana is in 'cone of uncertainty' after Beryl's landfall as Gulf track shifts north again
But the storm is expected to re-strengthen over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend and will likely impact Mexico and south Texas as a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
How much Beryl strengthens in the Gulf and where the storm makes landfall is still uncertain, NHC forecaster Philippe Papin said Friday morning.
But model guidance were all in agreement that Beryl, currently moving in a west-northwesterly motion, could track more north once the storm enters the Gulf. That's because the "heat dome" over the southern U.S. that's been steering it west is beginning to dissipate.
"The subtropical ride north of Beryl that has been steering it for many days will now become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a long-wave trough located over the Central U.S.," Papin said at 4 a.m. Friday. An upper-level low in the western Gulf could also steer the storm in a more northward motion.
Hurricane Beryl on Friday, July 5, 2024.
How far north will Beryl turn in Gulf?
How north Beryl turns in the next two to three days will depend on the impact from the low and how weak the ridge becomes, Papin said.
"The overall guidance this cycle has made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier," Papin said.
The 7 a.m. forecast from the NHC shows Beryl, currently with winds of 100 mph over the Yucatan and moving west-northwest at 15 mph, emerging in the Gulf Saturday afternoon as a tropical storm and strengthening back into a hurricane by Sunday afternoon.
Hurricane Beryl has the potential to bring flash flooding to a large part of south Texas.
Landfall is projected Monday afternoon near the Texas-Mexico border, but Papin said it's too soon to pinpoint where the greatest impacts will be.
"Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, "Papin said.
Storm watches for portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be put into effect later Friday.
Louisiana is not within the NHC's "cone of uncertainty" on Friday morning.
The National Weather Service in New Orleans said Friday morning that "no direct impacts to our local area are expected from Hurricane Beryl."
Dangerous rip currents and rough surf in the Gulf is forecast for the weekend and into early next week, the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston said Thursday night.
Papin said Friday that the NHC tracks may have to be adjusted later today. Residents in Texas, Mexico and Louisiana should remain vigilant and get the latest updates at hurricanes.gov.
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This graphic shows wind arrival times associated with Hurricane Beryl.