WASHINGTON — The conviction of former President Donald Trump on 34 criminal counts Thursday might have some effect on voters in November, but he should still win Louisiana easily, several local political analysts said.
Roy Fletcher, a veteran political strategist from Baton Rouge, said it's too early to tell exactly what impact the verdict will have on how voters view the presumptive Republican nominee.
“Poll results are based on a hypothetical," Fletcher said. "Now that the verdicts have come down, the reality gives the question a different life for some people. Roughly half the country said it was a show trial and the other half felt the prosecution was real."
There could be movement among some independent voters, he said.
“Does it affect anything in Louisiana? Probably not,” Fletcher added, noting that the outcome — Trump or President Joe Biden — is already a given in Louisiana and most other states.
Robert Hidalgo is one of those Louisiana voters who won't be affected by Trump's conviction.
“I’m still going to vote for him,” said Hidalgo, a 60-year-old Opelousas Republican. “They’re all guilty of something up there. They all have their secrets. But they framed him so much because the Democrats don’t want him to run. So, yeah, he still has my support.”
Hidalgo took part in a recent poll commissioned by The Advocate | The Times-Picayune that asked Louisiana voters if a Trump conviction would influence them. The survey found a marginal loss of votes in Louisiana but not enough to come close to erasing his sizable advantage.
The survey found that if Trump was convicted of a crime, he could lose between 2% and 9% of his vote in Louisiana. That translates to about 25,000 to 113,000 votes, based on poll results and turnout numbers from the last election. Trump’s margin in Louisiana was 400,000 in 2020.
G. Pearson Cross, who teaches political science at the University of Louisiana-Monroe, says the survey’s findings reflect what impact the conviction might have on a relatively small group of voters.
“It is going to take some of the luster off some of those middle voters," Cross said. "But it definitely is not going to shake any of those real MAGA voters."
Cross called it "unbelievably damning" that all 34 counts came back as guilty, noting that could sway some voters.
"I expect him to win the state, but he may take it by less,” Cross said.
Trump was convicted of falsifying records to hide hush money to pay a porn star, Baton Rouge native Stormy Daniels, not to discuss an alleged sexual encounter in the weeks prior to the 2016 presidential election.
“I suspect every pollster will be out in the field tomorrow or Saturday with this one,” said John Couvillon, a Baton Rouge pollster. “I don’t think it’s going to have much impact, but I will check back in a week or two weeks to see how the needle moves.”
Couvillon noted that a National Public Radio Marist poll released Thursday morning before the jury verdict found that 15% of the nation’s voters would be more likely to vote for Trump if convicted and 17% would be less likely. For the rest, a conviction wouldn’t make a difference.
“Opinions about Donald Trump already are so established on both sides, the verdict isn’t going to change too many people’s minds,” Couvillon said.
The verdict set off a chorus of criticism from Republican officials from Louisiana.
The top two members of the U.S. House of Representatives — both Louisiana Republicans — decried the jury’s decision.
"Today is a shameful day in American history," Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, of Benton posted on X. "This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one. The weaponization of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden Administration, and the decision today is evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents."
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, of Metairie, struck a similar note.
“Extremist Democrats have undermined democracy by weaponizing the courts and abusing the judicial system to operate like a banana republic that targets their political opponents,” he said in a news release. “The voters will settle this on November 5th.”
Gov. Jeff Landry also quickly weighed in.
“This is a dark day for our country — where the very justice system that had been a hallmark of justice for hundreds of years has been replaced with a two-tiered system based on politics!” Landry posted on X, formerly Twitter. “I do have faith that the American people will not tolerate this!”
U.S. Rep. Clay Higgins, a Lafayette Republican, called the trial “100 percent rigged.”
“Trump will win on appeal and again in November,” Higgins said on X.
U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, recently called a “total flake” by Trump, said the verdict was “not surprising,” criticizing the defense, the management of the trial, the jury instructions and the desire of the district attorney to fulfill a campaign promise.
“The jury was led to believe that two misdemeanors make a felony and that a state court could enforce federal law,” Cassidy said in a statement. “None of this seems right. The rule of law should apply equally to both parties. I disagree with the verdict.”
Trump and Cassidy have long been at odds. Cassidy was one of just seven Republican senators to convict Trump of inciting insurrection in the 2021 impeachment trial over the sacking of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
