Why Vanderbilt baseball could see MLB draft streak snapped in 2024

Vanderbilt baseball kept its SEC-record streak of 18 consecutive NCAA tournaments going in 2024. But another long-running streak is likely to be snapped.

The Commodores have seen a first-round pick in nine of the past 10 MLB drafts, with 13 total players selected in the first round during that time. The only year in that span without a first-round pick was 2018, when shortstop Connor Kaiser was Vanderbilt's highest-drafted player in the third round.

Most prognosticators believe that the Commodores will be shut out of the first round in the 2024 MLB draft, which begins July 14 in Fort Worth, Texas. Bryce Cunningham is Vanderbilt's top prospect for the draft. He is ranked No. 63 by MLB Pipeline, No. 39 by Baseball America and No. 52 by Perfect Game.

That's coincided with one of the Commodores' worst seasons under Tim Corbin in 2024, with a 13-17 SEC record and an 0-2 finish in the Clemson regional.

Here's Vanderbilt's MLB draft outlook and how the two things could be connected:

Why Bryce Cunningham is Vanderbilt's best chance to keep streak alive

While Cunningham most likely lands in the second round, a team that is higher on him than the consensus could take him earlier, as could a team that believes he may be willing to sign for less than slot money.

Spencer Jones was in a similar situation in 2022, ranked in the second-round range on most public draft boards. But the Yankees liked the big outfielder enough to take him 25th overall.

Cunningham has mid-90s fastball velocity, a good changeup and some success as a starting pitcher in the SEC. What's missing is a consistent breaking ball. It's possible that a team that has a track record of developing better sliders for pitchers could be particularly interested.

Vanderbilt's second-best draft prospect for 2024 is left-hander Carter Holton, who is ranked No. 69 by MLB Pipeline, No. 66 by Baseball America and No. 67 by Perfect Game. He's likely to go in the second or third round, but the first round is unlikely as Holton is perceived as having a lack of upside compared to other college pitchers in his range.

Vanderbilt lacked first-round position players in 2024

Despite Vanderbilt's reputation for producing top pitching talent, the Commodores have had just two first-round pitchers in the past six drafts: Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The remainder of the first-round picks in that span have been position players.

That's where Vanderbilt has fallen short in 2024. Davis Diaz and Jonathan Vastine are the Commodores' top position player prospects, but neither are likely to go in the first few rounds. Diaz doesn't strike out a lot, but in three years he hit just .243 with 18 home runs and didn't get much opportunity to play shortstop. Vastine is an excellent defensive shortstop who stole 12 bases in 2024 with a batting average of .299 and 10 home runs, but scouts are concerned about Vastine's 26% career strikeout rate.

Those were players who, when they made it through the draft in 2021, were seen as being potential future first-rounders. Whether it was due to poor evaluations by the coaching staff or poor development, the fact that those players never reached those heights is a big part of the Commodores' offensive struggles.

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Why Vanderbilt's lack of first-round draft prospects has hurt

All eight teams that made it to Omaha had at least one position player ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 45 draft prospects for 2024. Vanderbilt's highest-ranked hitter was Vastine at No. 188.

Four of the eight teams who lost in super regionals also had a position player ranked in the top 45; Clemson, Evansville, UConn and Oregon did not.

The correlation was much higher for position players than pitchers. Outside of Florida two-way star Jac Caglianone, who is viewed as a better position player prospect than a pitcher, the highest-ranked pitching prospect for 2024 in Omaha was Texas A&M's Ryan Prager at 61. Not including Caglianone, the nine college pitchers ranked higher than Prager played for teams that lost in regionals or did not qualify for the postseason.

It's becoming more necessary to have at least one first-round positional talent to make it far in the postseason. However, having a first-round pitcher didn't help teams like East Carolina, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Duke to make a run.

Vanderbilt's RJ Austin is considered to be a potential first-rounder in 2025. If the Commodores want to make it back to the late rounds of the postseason, they will need him to live up to that billing.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on Twitter @aria_gerson.