Syracuse, N.Y. -- Upstate New York will see another sweltering day today, with the heat index nearing 100 degrees, before the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl deliver heavy rain starting tonight.
The latest National Weather Service forecasts show a lower chance of flooding across Central New York but greater north of the Thruway and in the Adirondacks as the path of Beryl becomes more clear and shifts to the west.
Much of Upstate will still see 2 inches of rain in a day, enough to cause flooding of streets and sharp rises in small creeks. There’s still at least a 15% chance of flooding Wednesday within 25 miles of any point in Upstate New York, the weather service said. There’s also a growing chance of severe thunderstorms, which could fell trees and knock out power.
“Areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain and experience intense rainfall rates will have an increased risk for localized flooding,” the weather service said. “Rainfall totals have come down across the region Wednesday through Thursday, but there is still some uncertainty on where the axis of heaviest rain will be setting up.”
Today, a heat advisory is in place for most of Upstate as temperatures rise into the mid 90s and the humidity makes it feel several degrees warmer. The advisory is in place from noon to 8 p.m. If you’re outside, try to limit activities, seek shade and drink plenty of water, the weather service advises.
Rain from Beryl moves in tonight and gets heavier by Wednesday morning. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere will be at near-record levels, so there’s little doubt that torrential rain will fall in some areas.
The remnants of Hurricane Beryl could combine with a warm front to cause thunderstorms with heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding in Upstate New York on Wednesday into Thursday. (Accuweather) AccuWeather.com
For now, the weather service has held off issuing a flood watch, although that could change today as Beryl moves through the midsection of the U.S. Right now, the low pressure center of Beryl is expected to cross over southeastern Michigan and Lake Erie. That puts the heaviest rain on the western side of Michigan, which could see areas of greater than 4 inches in a single day.
The most intense rain in Upstate New York is expected to start after sunrise Wednesday and continue into early Thursday morning.
As Beryl crosses into the Ohio Valley and then Canada, it will interact with a warm front crossing into the Northeast on Wednesday. That combination increases what meteorologists call instability in the atmosphere. The more unstable the air is, the greater the chance for strong storms and even tornadoes Wednesday afternoon.
The Southern Tier is mostly likely to get severe storms, although they’re possible across Upstate on Wednesday.
The clouds and rain from Beryl will ;push down high temperatures on Wednesday into the mid 80s. but the humidity will make it feel more like 90 degrees.
Rain showers could linger into Thursday afternoon, but Friday and the weekend look to be warm with mostly sunny skies, the weather service said.
A heat advisory is in place from noon to 8 p.m. today across Upstate New York as the heat index approaches 100 degrees.National Weather Service