Saturday brings ample afternoon action, with the main DFS sites coalescing around a four-game featured slate with a 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Ranger Suarez and knuckleballer Matt Waldron for the featured slate, with young Garrett Crochet popping on the afternoon slate. Coors Field will again rule the roost, but the Brewers are an interesting pivot. In the early going, it is the Cincinnati Reds against a bunch of middling Detroit arms.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 6
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI at ATL)
Braves vs. Giants – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$10,800 at DraftKings
$11,200 at FanDuel
$57 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Ranger Suarez worthy of our attention tonight despite being on the road in Atlanta. The 28-year-old continues to impress and has put it all together this year. Currently, he ranks third in the NL Cy Young Awards race, behind teammate Zack Wheeler and fellow lefty Chris Sale. In a fun twist, Atlanta also has the fourth and sixth-best pitchers per the current odds, with Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez, while the Phillies add one more with Aaron Nola ranking 10th.
Last night Atlanta took three pitches out of the park but still lost 8-6 with Nola earning his 100th career win and Fried getting only his fourth loss of the season. Those half-dozen runs were only the third time in the last 13 (23%) where Atlanta plated more than four runners. The absences of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II have dramatically shortened the lineup, exposing a weak bottom third.
This will not be a cakewalk for Suarez, but even ceding half a dozen runs to Miami in his last start and having an abbreviated two-inning outing to begin June, the frontline ace still had 31 innings with a 3.48 ERA and only two home runs allowed last month. He is second in the league with his 2.27 ERA and eighth with a 0.99 WHIP.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Matt Waldron (SD vs. ARZ)
Padres vs. Diamondbacks – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,600 at DraftKings
$8,100 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
Considering there is a Coors Field Extravaganza plus two elite offenses squaring off in Los Angeles, with the Dodgers hosting the Milwaukee Brewers, gamers will be funneled toward the Diamondbacks and Padres in San Diego. Last night was a wild one, with Arizona erasing a 7-2 deficit with six runs in the top of the ninth, only to have the Friars score three, with Jurickson Profar hitting a solo shot and then Manny Machado securing the walk-off with a two-run round-tripper.
This will be the third time this season that RHP Matt Waldron has faced the Diamondbacks. The results have been mixed. In the first matchup, the knuckleball was not knuckling and allowed eight runs in three innings for his worst game of the season. One month later, the 27-year-old ceded one run across six innings in a 13-1 victory.
Waldron has just enough strikeouts to be interesting, but they are not consistent, which is no surprise considering he relies on the knuckleball 39% of the time, resulting in a lot of weak contact. All told, the active roster for Arizona has a .240/.333/.380 triple slash line, with one home run and four doubles in 50 at-bats with only 10 strikeouts.
On the other side of this matchup is RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has a similar salary and implied run total as Waldron. Pfaadt also has two games against the Padres, with 10 runs allowed across 11.1 innings. The San Diego lineup is weaker without Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts, so Pfaadt is worth of our consideration as DFS fortune often favors the bold.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Garrett Crochet (CHW at MIA)
White Sox at Marlins – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$10,400 at DraftKings
$11,500 at FanDuel
$59 at Yahoo
Young LHP Garrett Crochet is one of the hottest potential trade commodities as playoff teams start to prepare for the late-season push. The 25-year-old has been a top-10 pitcher this season, with a 3.02 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He leads the league with 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Across six June starts, Crochet compiled a 1.91 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings, allowing only one home run.
The only knocks against the budding ace are his 30-ish percent ground ball rate and likely soft cap of around 90 pitches. Miami has scored the second-fewest run in the league while ranking last in home runs and total bases. The Marlins are in the middle of the pack when it comes to strikeouts and the projected lineup has only a 20.9% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. However, that should not dissuade anyone from rolling with Crochet, who is well-positioned to make his own DFS magic.
Other options for the afternoon action include Andrew Heaney and Taj Bradley squaring off in Texas as the Rangers host the Tampa Bay Rays. Hunter Greene has a nice matchup against Detroit, though there is always home run risk in the Great American Ball Park, and young Cade Povich is the discount dandy in Oakland, getting to face the anemic A’s with the backing of the Baltimore offense.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers at Dodgers – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP James Paxton
DK Top Stack %: 10.8%
FD Top Stack %: 10.7%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Coors Field Extravaganza with a 45% probability of producing the highest fantasy-scoring team tonight. However, where is the fun in talking about that? Instead, we can look to the Brewers, in Los Angeles, taking on LHP James Paxton who is coming off a nine-run appearance.
The Big Maple was crushed in San Francisco on Sunday, allowing nine runs, with 12 hits, two walks and only four strikeouts in four innings. That’s the third time in the last seven games that the Canadian hurler has ceded five or more runs. Despite making his debut back in 2013, this will be only the 172nd start for the 35-year-old. Injuries have limited him to 40 starts over the last five seasons, completely taking him out of the picture in 2022.
Despite scoring the seventh most runs this season and having plenty of right-handed pitching, the Brew Crew lacks consistent power against southpaws. They do make plenty of contact, have a high walk rate, with a low strikeout rate, as well as the second most steals in the league. William Contreras, Christian Walker and Willy Adames are the trio to target, with the savvy gamers branching out to Rhys Hoskins and Jackson Chourio for larger stacks. Using Milwaukee as a concentrated trio is likely the best approach tonight and then dabbling with the teams in Coors or looking to gain leverage against Pfaadt or Waldron, depending on which pitcher projects for the most popularity.
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Early Slate Primary Target: Cincinnati Reds
Reds vs. Tigers – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Manning/Faedo
DK Top Stack %: 5.6%
FD Top Stack %: 5.3%
The expectation is that Detroit will be going with some sort of bullpen game, with RHPs Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Beau Brieske likely to see action along with LHP Tyler Holton. Detroit saw three relievers in the game on Friday, but that was the only action that trio had seen in the last four days, so they are also available.
This afternoon it will be in the mid-to-upper 80s, with 50% humidity, which of course should keep things festive in the Great American Ball Park. Elly De La Cruz has been amazing this year, and he leads the league with 43 steals, while also posting 37 extra-base hits. That is 15 more steals than Brice Turang, with Cincinnati also leading the league in this category. Spencer Steer (13), Jake Fraley (12), Stuart Fairchild (11) and Will Benson (11) have also cleared the double-digit marker, prior to the All-Star Break.
Power is not an issue for this group, with De La Cruz, Steer and switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario being the first trio to target. Full stacks can include Benson and Jonathan India, giving excellent options across a variety of positions. The consolidated synergy of the Reds, along with the team giving half the lineup the green light for steals is appealing this afternoon.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Austin Gomber is someone to target in the sports wagering world for his under 3.5 strikeouts, which is available at -116 on FanDuel.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -122 “true odds” for Gomber to fall under this threshold, which brings a steady 2.5% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff and Hard Rock at -140, which is indicative of a NEGATIVE 6% expected ROI.
In his last six games, Gomber has four or more strikeouts only once, notching four in Houston on June 25. He has four or more strikeouts eight times in his 16 starts, with four of those outings being exactly four whiffs. The projected lineup for Kansas City has a paltry 16.3% strikeout rate against southpaws since the beginning of last year, so the hope is they are able to chase Gomber before he is able to reach the crucial fourth punchout.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Saturday, July 6
On the very early slate, Minnesota and New York are worth mentioning. For the featured slate, there could be summer showers around Atlanta, though they do not appear to be in any imminent danger of messing up the game. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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