We’re back with a five-game MLB slate on Monday that locks early at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, July 8
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Twins-White Sox: Chris Paddack
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 17.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,500
With only five games in play and weak pitching options across every price point, ownership at pitcher is expected to be extremely concentrated. As of this writing, Chris Sale, Andrew Abbott and Jon Gray are projected for 116.4% combined ownership on DraftKings. Though Sale will be by far the highest owned among that bunch, some combination of the three of them will be in a lot of lineups. That leaves a bunch of contrarian pitchers, with Chris Paddack emerging as the top arm to target in GPPs.
Full disclosure, Paddack “looking good” here says a lot more about the other pitchers on this slate than it does Paddack himself. His numbers are modest: A 5.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 70 strikeouts and 18 walks over 78.1 innings as he’s acclimated himself back into a full-time starting pitching role with the Twins. That being said, Paddack’s 4.71 xERA suggests that he’s a tad better than his actual results are implying. While it’s still hard to get excited about rostering Paddack right now, he does find himself in arguably the best matchup on the slate, facing a White Sox team that ranks towards the bottom of the league in most offensive categories.
Despite his struggles this season, Paddack is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 17.1% of the time this slate plays out. With only 7.8% of lineups expected to roster him, Paddack is worth looking at as a differentiator in tournaments.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Guardians-Tigers: Guardians
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 12.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 10.0%
Unlike at pitcher where three players are getting the majority of love, stack ownership is spread out. Every team aside from the Diamondbacks is projected to be between 6% and 17% owned on DraftKings. As of this writing, there is no stack coming in with real leverage in Stokastic’s Top Stack Tool. Most of the offenses on this slate are either appropriately or over owned, and while the Guardians are sitting in that boat right now, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if their ownership drops given how much more expensive they are as a stack.
Tigers right-hander Keider Montero has looked good over his first couple of starts. He’s still criminally underpriced at $4,000 on DraftKings, and on a lot of slates I’d just lock him in at that price. That being said, he doesn’t project to be anything special, and there’s always a lot to like about getting to the Guardians this season. This slate is different from most five-gamer where at least one offense usually stands out way above the field, however. A case can be made for any of five teams to be the top stack on the board tonight. The Twins, Reds, Braves, Rangers and Guardians are all in great spots, and it’s no surprise that Cleveland is projected to be the lowest owned given that Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor are a combined $17,700 on DraftKings. Chris Sale looks to be the clear priority for most of the field, and stacking the Guardians while rostering Sale is extremely difficult.
The Guardians are projected to be the top stack 12.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 10.0% of lineups expected to stack them, they are the top tournament stack on the board.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks, Tigers, White Sox
