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Diamondbacks pitcher Jordan Montgomery sits on the bench during a game between against the Cardinals on Tuesday, April 23, 2024, at Busch Stadium.
So this is how it’s gone for former Cardinals hurler Jordan Montgomery this season in Arizona:
He signed late with the Diamondbacks, after agent Scott Boras tried to wait out the pitching market to get him a massive long-term deal. Montgomery missed spring training, then settled for a short-term deal and predictably struggled early on.
Montgomery (6-5, 6.44 ERA) finally started to settle in during June. He produced a 2.70 ERA over a span of three starts and looked more like his old self.
Then the roof caved in during a 13-6 loss to the Minnesota Twins. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 10 hits in 2 2/3 innings.
“I just expect a lot out of myself,” Montgomery told reporters afterward. “I know I've let a lot of my teammates down and I'm just trying to be better.”
There were some seeing-eye hits in there and some fielding mishaps too, but he allowed too much contact. Diamondbacks fans booed him off the field.
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When Montgomery got to the dugout after being pulled, he released frustration by hurling his PitchCom device against the wall.
“I don't really know how to feel,” Montgomery said. “Like every ball found a hole, it could have been [hit] 60 mph, it could have been 100. So just gotta keep grinding. I was getting my four seamer in there, I was jamming them a lot. Just nothing to show for it. I got them on the ground and just seems like everything found a hole or was just out of reach or was spinning funny.”
While throwing between starts, Montgomery developed knee soreness and landed on the 15-day injured list with inflammation in his right patellar tendon.
That injury will allow him to catch his breath, then come back after the All-Star break and try to do better.
Writing for Baseball Prospectus, Alexandra Whitley crunched numbers on Montgomery:
Following Thursday, Montgomery has a .351 BABIP. DRA-, caring not for past production, has continued to ding him for a 26.9% line drive rate, and with the strikeout rate collapsing 21.4% to 15.8%, he winds up as 39% worse than league average on a per-inning basis.
The question as to whether this is the delayed onset to his ramp-up to the season or a decline is difficult. DRA- never liked him, and a velocity decline could be due to either age, the missed spring training, or both. You could talk yourself into other small issues being meaningful—his sinker is sinking slightly less with slightly less run, his four-seamer has slightly less carry, his changeup is leaking over the plate more versus righties, and his sinker usage versus lefties is skewing more middle-middle after being up-and-in last year. But these are differences of 0.5 inches or less in pitch movement, or guesses at contours on location charts, hardly worthy of getting booed off the field.
Losing 1.5 ticks of velocity across the board is the obvious cause, with the less obvious one being a significantly worse curveball. After sitting at 80.5 mph with -6.6 inches of Induced Vertical Break (IVB) and 3.0 inches of gloveside cut in 2023, Montgomery’s curveball is not only slower (78.9 mph) but breaking more (-8.0 inches of IVB with 4.9 inches of gloveside cut). And on that front there could be good news. With normal velocity restored to the curveball, both the induced vertical and horizontal breaks were more in line with 2023. Even if he was spiking it a lot this Thursday, it picked up excellent 40% chase and 50% whiff rates, and the shape (and iffy command) was similar in his last start against the Phillies.
On the bright side for Montgomery, his short-term contract does provide some financial security. He is making $25 million this season and he has already vested his player option for $20 million for next season.
If he bounces back from his knee injury to make 25 starts this season, then his player option for next season jumps to $25 million.
Montgomery will presumably grab that, enjoy a normal offseason of work, report to spring training on time next year and do the 2025 season right way.
TALKIN’ BASEBALL
Here is what folks are writing about Our National Pastime:
Stephen J. Nesbitt, The Athletic: “The Cardinals have launched themselves into wild-card position and out of seller territory this summer. If they’re going to make a deep postseason run, though, it’ll be because the current core came to life. The talent is there, and the pieces are showing signs of coming together lately. Would impact moves make St. Louis better? Of course! But the focus will likely be on improving in the short term without sacrificing the future. The Cardinals could use a mid-rotation starter; another reliever or two; a bench that has someone — anyone! — batting above .200. Those aren’t sexy moves, but could prove to be crucial upgrades.”
David Schoenfield, ESPN.com: “Similar to Philadelphia, St. Louis could also use help in center field. That position has long been a revolving door of sorts for the Cardinals: The last player to start 110 games there was Jon Jay way back in 2013. They were going to play Tommy Edman out there, but he has been out all season after wrist surgery. Lars Nootbaar got injured. Victor Scott was rushed to the majors and didn't hit. Michael Siani has been excellent defensively but hasn't hit much either. The Cardinals are in a wild-card position despite a lackluster offense and minus-40 run differential, but Robert would help the offense and give them stability in center field for the future. Right-hander Tink Hence was the only Cardinals prospect on the top 50 list, but they have an interesting farm system and young players like Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera who could be included in a deal.”
R.J Anderson, CBSSports.com: “We've noted time and again in recent years that the starting pitcher role is changing; workload expectations are decreasing, leading to a shift in what teams look for in their starter prospects. (Tink) Hence is that trend incarnated. He's a small righty (he's listed at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds) who has averaged fewer than five innings per start this season. Nevertheless, you can make a compelling case that he's one of the best pitching prospects in the minors thanks to a quality, well-rounded arsenal. Hence has already established himself at the Double-A level. We're curious to see how the Cardinals handle his workload heading forward, all the way up to his inevitable MLB debut.”
Bob Nightengale, USA Today: “They sure don’t have David Ross to blame anymore, do they? Ross is sitting home this summer, collecting his paycheck, and watching his resume look a whole lot better with the Cubs falling off a cliff. The Cubs spent money, have gotten tremendous value out of rookie sensation Shota Imanaga, and somehow find themselves in last place. The only category this team leads is having players thrown out stealing: 35 and counting.”
Levi Weaver, The Athletic: “Like (Jazz) Chisholm, (Randy) Arozarena won’t hit free agency until after the 2026 season. But he’s also three years older than Chisholm, and if the 29-year-old is dealt by the Rays, who seem to churn through talent with no compunction, he could be a big addition for a team in need of a right-handed bat and corner outfielder. You can’t ignore this fact: His numbers are down this year. Way down. Coming into 2024, his career slash line was .265/.351/.451 (.802 OPS). This year, it’s .196/.307/.356 (.663) — a shocking fall-off. So, the Rays may opt not to sell low during a slump. But buyers who are considering the investment will surely note that Arozarena has been at his best in big moments. Check out his career postseason line: .336/.414/.690 (1.104). That’s an October star, and any trade for Arozarena would be with that month in mind.”
Kathryn Xu, The Defector: “The news Tuesday that the Miami Marlins DFA’d Tim Anderson. It feels brutal and conclusive because of where he played. This 30-54 team, which could essentially sim the rest of the season to no real consequence, is choosing to get rid of a player on a one-year, $5 million contract, because he performed poorly enough to justify it. Anderson's season is so dire that it's difficult to find any meaningful explanation as to how he recorded the stats he did. No qualified batter has under a 60 wRC+ because any batter with less than that, meaning 40 percent worse than league average, would never play enough to be qualified. If you set the minimum at 200 plate appearances, Anderson is at the bottom of the list, with a wRC+ of 31. All of his Baseball Savant sliders form a blue expanse rivaling the breadth of the sky. Take your pick on issues to blame: his 28.2 percent strikeout rate, his 62 percent ground ball rate. If you want to point to his 2.9 percent walk rate, you certainly can, but even when he was great, Anderson rarely walked. This year he only has three extra-base hits, all of them doubles. What's shocking about Anderson, beyond how he's done so abysmally within the given sample size, is the severity of the drop-off since his All-Star season in 2022. That year, he'd slashed .301/.339/.395—it still wasn't his best year, but it was more than enough, even if his fielding began to look a little shaky.”
MEGAPHONE
“Some players are just comfortable in the big spot. It’s not just a certain city or location, but the importance of a game, the importance of an at-bat. He’s just comfortable in those spots. He believes in himself. He has confidence playing the game, and he’s just at the beginning."
Cincinnati Reds Reds manager David Bell, on shortstop Elly De La Cruz