Some overvalue it. Others might be too quick to dismiss it. We’re talking about run differential, because the Cardinals have one worth talking about.
Run differential, the obvious opposite of extremely advanced baseball statistics, tracks the most simple number. Runs scored minus runs allowed. Do the math, and you learn something about a club.
Well, maybe.
Good teams tend to score more than they are scored upon. Bad teams tend to do the opposite of that. Occasionally there are outliers. Are the Cardinals one of them?
Following Monday’s road win against the Nationals, the Cardinals remained second in the National League Central Division. They would be a non-sweating recipient of one of the NL’s three wild-card playoff spots if the season ended today; thank you very much, MLB’s expanded postseason.
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The Cardinals also happen to own one of the worst run differentials in the NL.
The crushed Colorado Rockies woke up Monday with a 32-58 record and the NL’s worst run differential. They had allowed 149 more runs than they had scored. The mangled Miami Marlins are 32-58 with the NL’s second-worst run differential. Minus-134
Third-worst?
It’s the climbing Cardinals, the NL’s winningest team since Mother’s Day, checking in at minus-33.
The Phillies were at plus-109 on Monday. The Dodgers, plus-104. The NL Central leading Brewers were plus-79. The Braves, plus-59, and probably disappointed about it. The Mets, Padres, Diamondbacks and even the Reds are in the run-differential green zone. The Cardinals remain in the red.
So, what does it mean?
Maybe something. Maybe nothing. Let’s see.
The Cardinals lose in lopsided fashion often enough to affect the numbers. Six times, they have won a game by five or more runs. Fourteen times they have lost a game by that same margin. The good news? A blowout loss still counts as just one loss.
After that, we will need to see more.
Good teams with bad run differentials do exist. They’re just rare. And they usually have defining characteristics that help defy the norm. They have great bullpens, or remarkable home-field advantages, or incredible success in tight games, or some combination of all of the above.
It’s pretty hard to become an outlier, though.
Only 11 teams have made the postseason with negative run differentials. Toss out seasons shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic or work stoppages, and that number shrinks to just seven. Of those seven, only four were 20 or more runs on run differential’s wrong side: the 2023 Marlins, the 2007 Diamondbacks, the 2005 Padres and the 1987 Twins.
Postseason expansion will make it easier. It’s already happened. Last season became the first in which two teams with a negative run differential made the same playoff picture.
Skip Schumaker’s Marlins were an unprecedented minus-52 as a wild-card recipient in 2023. They were promptly swept out of the playoffs. But the Diamondbacks in the same bracket managed to go from a minus-15 run differential in the regular season to playing in the World Series. Had Arizona beaten the Rangers, the deniers of run differential’s relevance would have had their best example since the 1987 Twins (minus-20) beat the Cardinals to win it all. Instead the Rangers (plus-165) rolled, continuing a popular theme of one of the season’s run differential darlings becoming champs.
I’m sorry for bringing up that 1987 World Series, but it remains the only example of a negative run differential-owning team securing a ring. That Twins team had home-field advantage as its legitimate superpower. Before it won every single home World Series game, it went 56-25 in the Metrodome (with a plus-63 run differential there) in regular season home games. Like I said earlier, you have to have a thing (or things) to defy run differential’s gravitational pull.
Maybe the Cardinals have a thing, or things.
They do tend to win close games, which has done a lot more for their winning record than their run differential. They are an impressive 17-12 in one-run decisions. Cap tip to manager Oli Marmol for that one.
The Cardinals also tend to stop any bleeding before it gets too bad. Especially lately. They haven’t lost three consecutive games since their Mother’s Day awakening in Milwaukee stabilized what had become a season-worst seven-game slide. Even when one of those too-often blowout losses occurs, the Cardinals are quick to rebound.
They also have an All-Star closer in Ryan Helsley, who leads baseball in saves, and a bullpen that leads the NL in holds. Good signs.
This last sign could be the best one, though. The Cardinals’ still-concerning run differential is slowly but surely improving. The last-place Cardinals had a minus-52 anchor around them on May 11. Since then, including Monday’s blowout win of the Nationals, it’s been a plus-19.
Instead of trying to become the next run differential exception, it’s better to win your way out of the danger zone.
Sports columnists Ben Frederickson and Jeff Gordon praise the surprising Cardinals who are keeping their team in contention but wonder if it really matters if Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Nolan Gorman don't have much better second halves.