Ten or more out of 12? That's how many games Missouri's football team will have to win this season to exceed the betting total that has been established for how many games the Tigers will prevail in this year.
Missouri is coming off its best football season in decades, has many key players returning including quarterback Brady Cook and receiver Luther Burden III to fuel surging hopes among the Ol’ Mizzou crowd.
That expectation of another banner year has translated to the oddsmakers, as those who set the numbers for the three legal walk-in sportsbooks in the area have set the over/under for the number of contests the Tigers will win as high as 9½. Any postseason play — league title game, bowl game, playoff contests — would not count in that betting total.
That follows MU being at 6½ heading in to last season, after the Tigers hadn’t won more than six games in any of coach Eli Drinkwitz’s three previous seasons running the team. But they surged to a 10-2 regular-season record and capped that with a victory over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
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Two of the brick-and-mortar shops in the area have had MU’s total at 9½, with the betting heavily shaded to “under.” At FanDuel (horse track in Collinsville), a bettor had to risk $180 to try to win $100 on the Tigers winning nine or fewer games. Conversely, over 9½ would return $146 for every $100 risked.
At DraftKings (Casino Queen in East St. Louis), the line also was at 9½ with the vigorish on the under not as steep (-145) as at FanDuel. But the return on over 9½ was less than in Collinsville (+125).
In Alton, the book in Argosy casino had MU’s victory total at 9, with the over the favorite (-124). Under was at even money. (If the Tigers would win exactly nine games, bets would be a “push” and be refunded.)
SEC! SEC! SEC!
Think the Tigers are poised to with the Southeastern Conference title now that Nick Saban finally has left Alabama after his dominating run in all of college football?
Well, the odds say a newcomer to the league has a better chance to win. MU was at 12-1 at DraftKings and Argsoy, 15-1 at FanDuel. What a change from last summer, when the odds locally of MU prevailing in the SEC were as high as 200-1.
All three books had Georgia as the favorite (odds between +150 and +190), with newbie Texas the second choice (ranging from +310 to +350). The other incoming team, Oklahoma, was 40-1 at all those shops.
Vanderbilt, meanwhile, was the longest shot — 1,000-1 at DraftKings.
Playoff push
There is a lot of talk among MU faithful of the team’s chances to make the expanded college football playoffs, up to 12 teams from four last year, and the oddsmakers have the Tigers on the cusp.
Argosy had them with 12th-lowest price to make the field, at +150 (a successful $100 bet would be worth at $150 profit). Georgia and Ohio State were massive favorites to qualify, at -670.
DraftKings also had MU 12th on its list, at +175. The Tigers just miss the cut according to odds at FanDuel, at which they were 13th (+180).
The big prize
Last June, the return on the Tigers winning the national title were as lofty as 400-1, in Alton. While they certainly aren’t among the favorites to win this season, their championship price has had a profound dip.
DraftKings had them at 35-1, FanDuel was at 38-1 and Argosy chimed in at 50-1. The favorites — Georgia (about 3-1), Ohio State (about 4-1) and Texas (about 8-1).
How about Illini?
The over/under for wins last season for Illinois was 6½, like Mizzou, but the Illini fell short in their 5-7 campaign.
This summer the area books have dropped Illinois’ total to 5½, with the under being the favorite: -120 at DraftKings, -127 at Argosy and -130 at FanDuel. Over was even money at DraftKings, +105 at the others.
The best price on the Illini to win the Big Ten crown was 300-1, at DraftKings. Argsoy had the Illini’s price to make the playoffs at 45-1 and FanDuel had them at 1,000-1 to win the national championship.