On March 29th, Bobby Miller made a start in which he was objectively excellent. He threw six innings of shutout ball against St. Louis, striking out 11 hitters, and only walking one. He scattered just a pair of of hits in what would hopefully serve as a springboard for a breakout campaign.
That has not at all been the case in the weeks since. Miller made two more starts in which he allowed seven earned runs across just 5.2 innings and would then miss roughly two months with an injury. Since returning, he's been unable to gain traction.
Miller's three starts since his return from the IL have come against the Rockies, White Sox, and Diamondbacks. He's thrown a combined 13.1 innings, allowed an even 10 earned, and struck out just seven opposing hitters. There have been nine walks and 14 hits allowed within that span. It's all left him with a 6.12 ERA in six starts on the season.
This could present a problem in his projected start on Tuesday.
Miller will match up against the Philadelphia Phillies, a team which he's only faced once. In his start last June, he threw six innings and struck out seven while not allowing a run. Of course, this is a version Bobby Miller with command and home run issues that we didn't see last year. He's squaring off against a team that can exploit such issues better than most.
As a team, the Phillies sport the league's seventh-highest walk rate (9.0). They've also hit the seventh-most home runs (106), while posting the ninth-best isolated slugging (.160). Overall, they're one of the most potent offensive attacks in the league, scoring 442 runs on the year (ranking sixth).
Worse yet, they expect to get a significant boost on Tuesday evening. Each of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are expected back in the lineup after short IL stints. Schwarber's a lock; Harper is more likely than not to be activated. Each is not only a source of significant power, but also two of the highest walk rates in the entirely league.
Suffice to say that Bobby Miller has his work cut out for him on Tuesday in Philadelphia.