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Matthew Lynn

We will miss 1p and 2p coins when they’re gone

It doesn’t buy anything anymore. It is not enough to put into a charity box, and it just takes up space in your pocket or a purse. On one level, it will save us all a lot of trouble when one penny and two penny coins finally become extinct. The Treasury has told the Royal Mint not to make any new ones this year; and although there are plenty behind a sofa somewhere, this means they could eventually vanish completely. We will miss them when they are gone.  Rachel Reeves, the new chancellor, is keener on increasing government budgets than reducing them. One cut that may well be made, however,

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Ross Clark

Why is British retail so sluggish?

Is the retail sector ever going to recover from Covid-19? The rest of the economy seems to be purring quite nicely at the moment, with GDP up 0.7 per cent in the first quarter (not adjusting for population growth). But the good times have yet to reach the retail sector, where sales volumes fell by 1.2 per cent in June. This followed a surprise 2.9 per cent rise in May, but over the second quarter as a whole sales were down 0.1 per cent. Compared with the second quarter of 2023, sales were down 0.2 per cent. Overall, sales were 1.3 per cent lower last month than they were in

Fraser Nelson

Liz Kendall promises a game-changer on welfare

Seven Labour MPs had the whip suspended after voting against the two-child benefit cap, but this is a small taste of what awaits Labour. In her first major, Liz Kendall has set herself a target of hitting an 80 per cent employment rate – bolder than anything the Tories ever shot for. It is higher not only than today’s 72 per cent but (far) higher than the all-time, pre-lockdown record of 74 per cent. It is precisely the right target, for economic and social reasons. But it is one that can only be achieved via serious, game-changing welfare reform. The new Work and Pensions Secretary has inherited a full-blown welfare

Matthew Lynn

Labour will struggle with its plan to get Britain back to work

Liz Kendall wants Britain to get back to work. The Work and Pensions Secretary has unveiled a target for the country to reach an 80 per cent employment rate. But hold on: that ‘ambition’, as the government is calling it, is completely unrealistic. Labour’s plan to reverse the dire labour market and drive up Britain’s employment rate seems certain to fall short of its ambitious target. Spending on sickness and disability benefits is set to increase by £30 billion over the next five years Britain is the only country in the G7 whose employment rate has still not returned to pre-pandemic levels: 2.8 million people are out of work because of

Ross Clark

Miliband will need natural gas to hit net zero

Three weeks into the new Labour government and it is already becoming clear where some of its weaknesses lie – none more so than Ed Miliband’s promise to decarbonise the electricity grid, save consumers money and boost the economy with many thousands of ‘well-paid green jobs’. Today the Royal Academy of Engineering weighs in with its own assessment of Miliband’s chances. Its verdict? That even if the government wants to decarbonise the grid, Britain is going to have to invest in new gas plants – and ‘unabated’ ones (i.e. not fitted with carbon capture and storage CCS technology) at that. Even in an optimistic scenario, the Academy thinks that in

Why Labour should avoid Gordon Brown’s stealth taxes

During the election campaign, Chancellor Rachel Reeves made bold promises – no increases to Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT. She also sought to echo the ‘prudence’ mantra of her predecessor as chancellor Gordon Brown, though his tenure was marked by significant spending increases rather than prudent restraint. True to form, over the weekend Reeves indicated the government could accept recommendations for above-inflation pay increases, of about 5.5 per cent, for NHS workers and teachers. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates that a similar pay hike across public sector professions would cost about £10 billion, requiring more taxation or borrowing. This comes amid other ambitious plans for restructuring and

Stephen Daisley

Keir Starmer has just made his first misstep as Prime Minister

In dodging calls from his party to remove the two-child cap, Sir Keir Starmer is making one of his first noteworthy mistakes as Prime Minister. Both John McDonnell, the far-left former shadow chancellor, and Anas Sarwar, the soft-left Scottish Labour leader, have called for the Coalition-era policy to go. The cap limits the payment of Universal Credit to a family’s first two children, with subsequent offspring meriting no additional payment. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, keeping the cap will mean an extra 670,000 children worse off by the end of this Parliament while scrapping it would reduce relative child poverty by half a million. The annual cost of

Kate Andrews

Will Reeves boost public sector pay?

As the dust around the election settles, a question Tory MPs and supporters still grapple with is why Rishi Sunak called the election when he did – not least because economic indicators point to improvements over the summer and autumn, as inflation returns to target and growth starts to pick up. But Rachel Reeves, the new Chancellor, is having none of this narrative. ‘I really don’t buy this idea that somehow we’ve been handed a golden inheritance,’ she told Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC this morning, in her first sit-down interview since she entered No. 11. ‘If the former prime minister and chancellor had thought things were so good, they

Ross Clark

Keir Starmer is deluding himself about the EU

‘We cannot let the challenges of the recent past define our relationships of the future,’ declared the Prime Minister ahead of today’s meeting of the European Political Union at Blenheim Palace. The meeting, he added, ‘will fire the starting gun on this government’s new approach to Europe’. The subtext to this is: the grown-ups are back in charge, and from now on we are going to have a far more constructive relationship with the EU. Keir Starmer has even promised a renegotiation of Britain’s trading relationship with the EU, which is supposedly going to make life easier for our exporters. Keir Starmer has even promised a renegotiation of Britain’s trading relationship

Michael Simmons

Is the great worker shortage finally coming to an end?

British workers have just experienced their highest pay rises for two years. With inflation remaining at the Bank of England’s target, the average worker has now seen their real term pay increase between March and May this year by just over 2 per cent – a level not seen since 2022. However, in cash terms there are clear signs that the heat has firmly left the labour market with pay growth beginning to slow. This is good news for the new government and rate setters at the Bank of England who will need to decide next month whether it’s time for the first interest rate cuts. Doubts about a cut

Martin Vander Weyer

How the markets reacted to Trump’s assassination attempt

Market reactions to the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania represent, according to taste, rational bets on the significantly increased likelihood of a second Trump presidency or stark confirmation of the madness that has overtaken America and threatens the civilised world. Shares in Trump Media & Technology – the parent of his social media platform Truth Social – rose by 30 per cent on Monday, adding more than $1 billion to Trump’s notional fortune despite the company’s revenues being, as one observer pointed out, ‘comparable to that of two Starbucks stores’. Also up were shares in gunmakers such as Smith & Wesson and in private prison operators – and US Treasury bond

Kate Andrews

The Tories must share the blame for Labour’s illiberal smoking ban

When Rishi Sunak called a summer election, the Tobacco and Vapes Bill didn’t make the pile of ‘wash up’ legislation to be rushed through Parliament. His plans for a generational smoking ban, and a crackdown on vapes, were paused. But this was never going to be more than a brief delay. Labour has used the King’s Speech today to confirm that it will see Sunak’s smoking ban through. Or rather, the party might argue that it’s reclaiming the idea. It was Labour, after all, that floated the policy before the Tories adopted it at their party conference last year.  One day, a 63-year-old will be able to purchase a tobacco

Isabel Hardman

Everything you need to know about the King’s Speech

The big theme of today’s King’s Speech is ‘mission-led’ government, with economic growth, house building, workers’ rights and devolution the key elements. King Charles told the House of Lords that ‘taken together these policies will enhance Britain’s position as a leading industrial nation and enable the country to take advantage of new opportunities that can promote growth and wealth creation’. There are six bills designed to deliver these plans. One of the things about a King’s Speech is that what follows in the parliamentary session often bears little resemblance to what the monarch has said The Budget Responsibility Bill will force every fiscal event to be subject to an independent

Ross Clark

Labour’s war on nimbys won’t work

Deputy prime minister Angela Rayner has promised the ‘most ambitious programme of devolution this country has ever seen’, with new powers for local councils and more directly-elected mayors. But this will not apply, it seems, when it comes to planning. On the contrary, the centrepiece of the King’s speech today will be planning reforms aimed at reducing the powers of local communities to block housing and infrastructure developments. Powers will be centralised, with central government taking it upon itself to rule on more housing and infrastructure projects deemed to be in the national interest – just as Energy Secretary Ed Miliband did last week when he approved three large solar farms

Kate Andrews

Don’t blame Taylor Swift for stubborn inflation

The UK’s inflation rate is comfortably back to target: inflation held at 2 per cent in the 12 months leading up to June, the Office for National Statistics confirmed this morning. This rate is unchanged from last month. Yet this morning’s news is stirring up doubts that the Bank of England will go for its first rate cut in August. This is because, while the headline rate is back to the Bank’s target, the services annual rate remains sticky, unchanged from 5.7 per cent. Big reductions in clothing and footwear – which slowed to 1.6 per cent in the year to June, down from 3 per cent in the year

Is Starmer’s King’s Speech really a recipe for growth?

Labour’s first King’s Speech in almost 15 years is expected to be quite meaty. According to reports, His Majesty’s new government will propose 35 parliamentary bills for the coming year.  Labour is proposing dozens of red tape measures that will put the breaks on businesses To be entirely realistic, many of these will fall by the wayside. Parliamentary time is limited, and there are always unexpected events that derail existing legislative plans and call for new ones. Nevertheless, the King’s Speech will be quite revealing about the new government. What they choose to include – and not – sends a signal about early priorities and dispositions. Prime Minister Keir Starmer