Why MPs are braced for an ‘extremely turbulent few years’

Four days on from Keir Starmer’s landslide victory, Westminster is still soaking up the results of the general election. With the Labour leader safely ensconced in 10 Downing Street with a working majority of 181, the Tories are licking their wounds following their worst-ever defeat.

The Conservatives’ greatest comfort is that they have managed to remain the official opposition – but research from Focaldata on the pattern of voting sets out the challenge ahead: namely, that the Tories lost ‘a huge amount of their middle-aged voters’. The survey of more than 52,000 respondents finds that Tory voters under 40 tended to switch to Labour whereas those over 40 plumped for Nigel Farage’s Reform party. Later today, the Conservative party board is expected to meet and discuss a timeframe for selecting a new leader.

To say the political landscape has changed is an understatement. This will be plain for all to see on Tuesday when the new MPs arrive in parliament to be sworn in and to elect the Speaker – tipped to be the incumbent Lindsay Hoyle. On top of a very large Labour party and a diminished Tory party, there will be an influx of representatives from the smaller parties as well as independents. This includes the two Green party co-leaders, Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage along with his four Reform colleagues and several pro-Gaza independents. It means that despite the large Labour win, this new parliament could feel more fragmented than before. ‘Parliament is going to be a much more fractured place,’ predicts a former cabinet minister. ‘Despite the huge majority it will likely be an extremely turbulent few years.’

Team Starmer are aware of this – and the fact they won a huge majority with a mere 33.8 per cent of the vote share. It means the Prime Minister plans to tread carefully on rhetoric, regularly talking of his focus on winning the trust of those who did not vote for him. But when it comes to action, Labour aides see the size of the majority as a mandate for change. Already there are hints of this, with Starmer warning yesterday of the ‘tough decisions’ ahead (more on that here). For now, the focus is on keeping up a sense of momentum for the first 100 days. That means a slow drip of further ministerial appointments, meetings this week with the metro mayors and work on the King’s Speech, which will be Starmer’s government’s first big opportunity to set out its plans. Before all that, the new Prime Minister will fly to Washington on Tuesday for his first foray on the world stage at the Nato summit.

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