STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — Those looking to celebrate Independence Day this weekend might want to keep an eye on the forecast. New York City is predicted to see thunderstorms at numerous points throughout the coming days.
While Friday featured a mild, sunny day with a high of only 77 degrees, as reported by the Advance/SILive.com weather station, the next couple of days take a turn for the worse.
A timeline for the weekend:
Saturday
The threat for showers and thunderstorms first roll in around Saturday afternoon, according to National Weather Service (NWS) Lead Meteorologist John Cristantello.
“Looks like by sunset you’re right around a 50-50 shot, but the better chances actually happen overnight,” Cristantello said.
A National Weather Service graphic shows expected rainfall amounts for New York City from Saturday, June 29 through Sunday, June 30, 2024. (Courtesy of the National Weather Service)(Courtesy of the National Weathe
Saturday looks to feature a mild high of 80 with gusts reaching as high as 28 mph in New York City, the NWS reports. Proceeding into the evening hours, Saturday will drop to a low around 74, the chance of precipitation marked at 80%.
The NWS notes that showers will take place after 11 p.m. with a thunderstorm possible. Rainfall amounts are believed to measure up to half-an-inch.
Sunday
“For Sunday, it looks like the morning is probably okay,” Cristantello said. “I can’t rule out a potential shower, but I think it’s going to be again where in the afternoon it’s more likely. I would say the later afternoon to early evening hours. That’s when your chances ramp up again to at least better than 50-50.”
The NWS reinforces Cristantello’s forecast: at this time there is a chance at showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., but showers do not become “likely” until after 2 p.m.
The day’s temperatures will come in quite a bit warmer than Saturday’s, the NWS calling for a high of 89 degrees.
Rainfall amounts are anticipated to measure somewhere between a quarter and half of an inch; the chance of precipitation sitting at 70%.
It isn’t until Sunday evening that the NWS seems confident of thunderstorms. Prior to 11 p.m., both showers and thunderstorms become “likely”; a chance at showers persists through 2 a.m. Monday.
The low for Sunday evening is forecast to rest around 67 degrees by the NWS.
As with any thunderstorm, elevated wind speeds and rainfall amounts should be expected.
Although clouds may persist into Monday morning, the day looks to give way to a mostly sunny sky.
A shift in the weather pattern
This latest chance at thunder is amidst a recent change in weather patterns that saw New York City move from surging temperatures to more seasonable conditions.
“We’re in a pattern now, at least for the short term, for the next week to 10 days or so, we’re in this pattern where it’s kind of a back and forth,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said on Tuesday. “It’s more typical, I would say it’s a very typical early summer pattern, where you got little surges of heat and humidity that last for a day, they might last for a couple of days, and then they get knocked back by a front that comes through. And then you get a day or two where it’s more comfortable, and lower humidity, and you know, you knocked the temperatures down and then you sort of repeat the whole process over again.”
This “wash, rinse, repeat” type pattern can also spark thunderstorms as a result of either the increase in humidity and heat or incoming cold fronts, as reported by Dombek.
This pattern is expected to persist into, and potentially through, the coming week. It’s thanks to this early summer pattern that the Fourth of July has proved difficult to pin down with a specific forecast.