STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — It’s summer in the Northeast; naturally, it’s going to get somewhat warm. However, the latest outlook from the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center reveals that temperatures in July are forecasted to measure above the historical average.
Just last weekend, temperatures peaked at 95 degrees for three straight days on Staten Island, as reported by the Advance/SILive.com weather station. While that’s not unheard of, it is certainly warm for June.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Online Weather Data for Central Park, gathered between 1991 and 2020, shows that typically, the mean high temperature for June 21 through June 23 (the days that reached 95) is 81/82 degrees. That means the heat exceeded the average high by more than 10 degrees.
Turning away from consistent heat, the last week of June is bearing a shift in the weather pattern that will juggle between hot, humid days, and mild days.
But once we get into July, what should the residents of New York expect?
A HOT JULY ON HAND
It’s looking like it’s going to be a hot July throughout New York, and for the Northeast for that matter.
A monthly temperature outlook issued on June 20 by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center calls for warmer-than-average temperatures across New York for July 2024. (Courtesy of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center)(Courtesy of the National Weathe
The latest outlook by the NWS shows that the entire state of New York has a high likelihood of witnessing temperatures exceeding the norm. The tri-state area has a 70-80% probability of experiencing warmer-than-average temperatures this July.
Now, while it’s unknown by just how much these temperatures will surpass the average, it is worth noting that the NOAA data for Central Park reveals that the average high temperature for the month is 84.9 degrees.
This limited forecast does not detail whether temperatures will simply rest a few degrees higher, or whether we could see figures approach 100 degrees, it simply indicates that there is a good chance of temperatures clocking in above what we normally can expect.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN JULY
Most of the state looks to steer clear of any rainfall anomalies this July. However, those in the western end of the state may see a decreased amount of precipitation in the coming month.
A monthly precipitation outlook issued on June 20 by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center calls for less-than-average precipitation amounts in parts of New York for July 2024. (Courtesy of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center)(Courtesy of the National Weathe
According to the Climate Prediction Center, residents in the western half of the state have a 33-40% chance of experiencing less rain than typically expected.
While perhaps not as confident of a probability as the temperature outlook, it could be a sign for a drier-than-average July in areas such as Buffalo and Rochester.