STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — With what is predicted to be a “super charged” hurricane season upon us, meteorologists are monitoring activity in the Atlantic Ocean with the potential of forming into an early season hurricane.
Although AccuWeather reports that the end of June through mid-July is a rather “quiet” time for the Atlantic basin, meteorologists are tracking the potential for the formation of the season’s first hurricane in the coming week. Should conditions align, a hurricane powerful enough to whip up winds over 100 mph could be in the near future.
“A vast area of dry air, wind shear and an expanding shield of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa will be the main deterrents for tropical development into the first part of July,” AccuWeather Lead Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
Dry air acts as a deterrent to the formation of clouds, while wind shear acts to prevent tropical storm formation. Compounded with the ability of dust to dim the rays of the sun, which in turn reduces the warming effect on the atmosphere, the likelihood of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic is seemingly minimized- but not zero.
A chance at a hurricane
Tropical waves of low pressure rolling westward from Africa are being monitored by AccuWeather meteorologists for the potential of developing into something more in the coming weeks.
In order to efficiently develop into a tropical system, those waves will need to withstand the zone of wind shear, dust and dry air.
As of this point, AccuWeather foresees such an occurrence taking place.
In recent days, AccuWeather has monitored “a batch of showers and thunderstorms” which have “emerged in center stage.”
An AccuWeather satellite image shows a tropical rainstorm in the south-central Atlantic about to become better organized on Friday, June 28, 2024. (Courtesy of AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)(Courtesy of AccuWeather Enhance
On Friday, satellite images revealed that “wispy high-level” clouds were spreading out over the system, a “telltale sign of organization,” AccuWeather says.
“This feature is tracking south of a zone of dry air, dust and stiff disruptive breezes called wind shear,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
As this has a “high-risk” of tropical development, AccuWeather is referring to this as a “tropical rainstorm.”
The system is expected to set course for the Windward Islands where it will have “at least” reached tropical storm intensity by the time of arrival, according to AccuWeather.
These potential tropical storm conditions could impact the islands as early as Sunday. AccuWeather warns that there is a possibility the system evolves into a Category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches the Windwards.
An AccuWeather graphic shows a forecasted tropical eye path through Friday, July 5, 2024. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
Encounters with the larger islands in the Caribbean and South America could inhibit intensification, but should the storm remain in “the moist zone” it could ramp up into a “major hurricane” with sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph, noted AccuWeather.
Reinforcement by NWS
The National Weather Service’s (NWS) National Hurricane Center has identified a low pressure system about 1,400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
The associated showers and thunderstorms are “increasing in organization,” and should such a trend continue, the NWS foresees the development of a tropical depression before the end of day Friday.
In fact, the NWS has given the disturbance a 100% chance of cyclone formation within 48 hours.
This system is expected to proceed westward toward the Windward islands at a speed of 15-20 mph before reaching the islands by the end of the weekend.
An abnormal occurrence
Such tropical activity from what AccuWeather calls the “wave train” is unusual for this time in the season. Storms do not generally strengthen over the main hurricane development zone until mid-August or even later.
An AccuWeather graphic shows the usual timing of the hurricane season. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
“Tropical storm formation south of 20 degrees north latitude and east of 60 degrees west longitude is rare this time of the year,” Rayno said. “Only seven named storms have formed over the last 173 years in this sector of the Atlantic before July 4.”
Late June to mid-July typically only yields one or two named systems, with AccuWeather noting that the first system of the season, Alberto, formed on June 19 over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico before moving into Mexico.
“We continue to observe much higher-than-historical-average water temperatures over most of the Atlantic, and this is the premise for the robust activity now and that AccuWeather has been anticipating a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter,” AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker said.
Another tropical wave this weekend
Whether the wave of concern develops into anything severe next week remains unknown.
However, another tropical wave approaching Central America has a “medium chance” of developing into a tropical depression before heading for east-central Mexico on Sunday.
As AccuWeather believes it will face land interference, development may be disrupted.
Despite this, the report indicates that the northwestern Caribbean and Mexico will be hit with “torrential downpours” and thunderstorms as a result of the system.