Projected Win Total for the New York Giants in 2024: Is the Under the Smart Bet?
One of the numerous goals for the New York Giants this coming season is to show improvement across the board. That, of course, starts with a better record than last year’s 6-11. Mark.
But with oddsmakers having set the Giants’ over/under win total at 6.5 games, SI.com’s Gilberto Manzano believes the Giants will fall short of that mark.
“The Giants are banking on Daniel Jones having a bounce-back season after he endured six rocky games before sustaining a torn ACL in 2023,” Manzano said.
“Jones should benefit from the arrival of rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, the No. 6 pick in the draft. But Nabers might not have much help with a group of skill players that’s struggled in recent years.
“The offensive line also hasn’t developed as hoped, but it could improve if Andrew Thomas stays healthy and newcomer veterans Jon Runyan Jr. and Aaron Stinnie improve the interior. The Giants’ strength will likely be on the defensive front with the arrival of Brian Burns, but the secondary could be an issue.”
The arrival of Malik Nabers should help Daniel Jones, but as Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells once said years ago of another player brimming with all kinds of potential, let’s not get his bust ready for Canton just yet.
Nabers brings impressive college production to the NFL and a fiery, competitive spirit, but he still needs to show that he can handle the next level of competition before anyone can anoint him as this team’s savior.
Manzano’s statement that the Giants have a group of skill players “that’s struggled in recent years” isn’t accurate–the supporting skill players around Jones have been pedestrian stat-wise. Still, circumstances beyond their control in some cases have caused that.
Receiver Darius Slayton has led the team in receiving yards in four of his five seasons, posting at least 700 yards. In his few opportunities, Jalin Hyatt showed himself capable of taking the top off the defense.
Slayton (16.2 yards/reception, 8th place) and Hyatt (15.4 yards/reception, 15-T) finished in the top 15 in average yards per reception based on a minimum of 40 targets last season.
Fellow receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, who started last season slowly because he was returning from a torn ACL suffered the year prior, showed a lot of promise as a slot and gadget player.
Admittedly, the tight ends were a disappointment. Darren Waller, a player acquired via trade for whom the Giants’ brass had big dreams, couldn’t shake off the injury bug and thus was ineffective for the team.
And the running game, led by Saquon Barkley last year, finished 16th last season, again hardly the definition of “struggling.”
Jones and the offensive line are the keys to the Giants exceeding 6.5 wins. Before his torn ACL, Jones had two good quarters of football, both coming in the second half of a come-from-behind win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.
However, as injuries took their toll on the offensive line, Jones regressed from being the solid game manager he was in 2022’s 9-7-1 season to more of a deer caught in the headlights.
The second half of Manzano’s statement is more accurate based on where things stand. Again, the Giants need their offensive line to play better than it did last season when injuries forced a revolving door of combinations that the team just hadn’t planned for.
The hope is that new offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo will tap into the still undeveloped potential of youngsters like Joshua Ezeudu and Marcus McKethan, help smooth out the rough edges in right tackle Evan Neal’s game, and get center John Michael Schmitz playing more consistently in Year 2.
As for the defense, the Giants front seven looks much improved on paper following the arrival of Brian Burns via trade from the Carolina Panthers.
A strong front seven should align with what new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen likes: generate pressure via the front seven rather than through exotic blitzes as his predecessor, Wink Martindale, liked to do.
The defensive secondary currently appears to be a question mark, but that’s probably due to the lack of an established unit at some positions combined with the loss of two starters, safety Xavier McKinney and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, from last year.
The Giants added safety Tyler Nubin in the second round of the draft, hoping he can win the starting job.
Meanwhile, at Jackson’s cornerback spot, head coach Brian Daboll volunteered that the team has a lot of confidence in third-year man Cor’Dale Flott for the CB2 position opposite Deonte Banks.
The only other argument one might make for taking the under in the win column is that the Giants have the sixth toughest schedule this year based on their opponents' strength of schedule (SOS) from last year.
However, the SOS stat is one of the most misleading given that teams change from the end of one season to the start of the next.
The Giants have many questions–will Jones rebound, how will they adjust following Saquon Barkley's departure, will Malik Nabers come as advertised, will the defensive pass rush get home more, and so on? These questions will be answered as the team goes through its OTAs and summer training camp.
The bigger questions determining the 2024 win total boil down to two things.
First, can they stay healthy? Last year, injuries wrecked this team to the point where the coaches couldn’t keep up with all the lineup changes and adjustments that had to be made.
Second, and most importantly, Will they be better prepared to start the new season? Last summer, I don’t think Daboll's approach in training camp prepared the team as well as it could have.
The Giants won't have much chance without that solid foundation to use as a springboard into the regular season. Let’s hope that this coming summer is a lot different.
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PATRICIA TRAINA
Patricia Traina has covered the New York Giants for over three decades for various media outlets. She is the host of the Locked On Giants podcast and the author of "The Big 50: New York Giants: The Men and Moments that Made the New York Giants" (Triumph Books, September 2020). View Patricia's full bio.