Dolphins Saturday Mailbag: Tua, Holland, Short Yardage, and More

Part 1 of a Miami Dolphins mailbag on the first weekend of July:

From Jason Kirkland (@1bigdad424):

Hi Alain, my take is the ypc that Miami had last year is misleading. It goes with what you said, repeatedly, last season. On 1st & 2nd down, with the threat of the pass, they got chunk yardage. Have you seen what they averaged on 3rd or 4th and short? My guess is not good.

Hey Jason, here are the numbers, on third-and-1, 11 carries for 23 yards for a 2.09 average with five first downs; third-and-2 was three carries for 11 yards for a 3.67 average and three first downs (perfect conversion rate); third-and-3 was one carry for minus-5 yards; fourth-and-1 was three carries for 7 yards with two first downs; fourth-and-2 was two carries for 6 yards and two first downs. What stands out is the really poor third-and-1 performance.

From Dave (@angryvet59):

While it won't be known for sure until Week 1, are we going to FINALLY see the end of Bend Don't Break defense ? Maybe something aggressive which I really haven't seen since the Zach/JT/ Madison & Surtain days? Thanks & enjoy your vacation with family!

Hey Dave, first off, thanks, indeed planning on enjoying our upcoming vacation, which will be the result the weekly mailbag will go on hiatus for a month after this weekend. As for your question, I’ll have to respectfully disagree with you about your assessment because the defenses under Brian Flores and even in the first year under Mike McDaniel most definitely were not bend-and-break. Those defenses were all about attacking opposing offenses and featured a lot of blitzing.

From Jayco (@ljc7975):

Which three players would you consider as surprise contributors this year?

Hey Jay, this always is a tough question because, and this is not me trying to sound like a smart alec, but if I’m predicting success, then they won’t be surprises. But I’ll go ahead and give you three players who maybe aren’t expected by most to be big contributors who could be and I’ll go with O-lineman Liam Eichenberg, defensive tackle Teair Tart and linebacker Anthony Walker Jr.

From Fins Broke My Heart (@Phinzup44):

With all the Xavien Howard offseason strange news, do you see him signing with a team for next season? Seems to me that the off-field stuff and the injuries wouldn't justify much more than the vet minimum, which Howard won't be too happy to accept.

Yeah, this is a tricky one. Whenever off-the-field issues — even if it’s just stuff that creates negative publicity — pop up, it always becomes a case of the better the player, the more teams are willing to tolerate. I’d be tempted to agree that he’s not likely to get the kind of offer he’d like, so then it’ll come down to how much he wants to keep playing. My expectation remains that he’ll be in the NFL in 2024.

From James Vernon (@vernonmintern):

Do you ever get tired of talking about Tua ... is he good enough? Will he, won’t he get a new contract? What do you think is the best move the Dolphins could make to turn themselves into contenders against the better teams who beat them every season?

Hey James, the Tua talk does get tiresome, but it comes with the territory of him being the starting quarterback because his position makes him the most important player when it comes to long-term success. As for what move the Dolphins can make to meet the challenge against better teams, it’ll come down first and foremost to simply better execution with the players on hand and maybe tweaking the offensive formula to a more run-based attack at key moments.

From Ed Helinski (@MrEd315):

In your opinion, who are the 3-4 or more key players the Dolphins can’t afford to lose during any long stretches of the upcoming season?

Hey Ed, any such list would have to start with Tyreek Hill on offense and Jalen Ramsey on defense. Then we probably should add Tua , Jaylen Waddle and Zach Sieler.

From Roger Dodger (@RogerDolfan):

If Fins offense is "working," "functioning" and "a good marriage" with Tua, why can't Fins and Tua consistently beat teams with winning records or win playoff games? Isn't this the most important part of winning a Super bowl? Until then, this is not a "working" offense. Correct?

Hey Roger, we can’t in good conscience say the offense isn’t working when the Dolphins were first in the NFL in total yards in 2023 and second in scoring. It’s also true that it hasn’t been good enough the past two years to get the Dolphins where they want to go, which is deep into the playoffs. The big question, of course, is whether the offense has the pieces to reach that next level, and nobody has that answer at this time.

From Matt Walker (@walkerstrat):

Due to the quick passing game, do you think the protection on the interior is more critical than protection on the edges? To my eyes, Tua struggles most when there is an interior pass rush.

Hey Matt, the quick passing game help the pass protection against both outside rushers and interior linemen, but there are problems with each type of pressure and neither is ideal. But if there’s interior pressure but none outside, then Tua can just slid outside the pocket to buy time, just like he can move up in the pocket if there’s outside pressure but none up the middle. I don’t know that I noticed one being a bigger problem than the other last season.

From Dave Lowe (@DKL_II):

Hey, Alain! Love your work. It's honest and a "no fluff zone." This is a little different of a question...Do you see a difference in how younger fans see the team (Stat/FF and PLAYER lovers) vs older fans (like me) who love the TEAM and just want playoff wins and a Lombardi?

Hey Dave, first thanks and second that’s a good question, but I do believe “real” fans continue to put the team above all else. There certainly is a segment of fans who appear as though they care more about certain players than overall team success, though I think some of that might be for show. And those players more concerned about player stats and fantasy results shouldn’t really be classified as true Dolphins fans.

From Common Reader (@SnackService1):

Doesn't the Holland contract status feel like it will develop into a "He's earned the right to test the market" scenario by season's end?

Hmm, interesting question, but I think I’m still inclined to believe he won’t get to the free agent market. And also understand that consummating a deal isn’t simply about a team giving a player whatever he wants, but rather the two sides finding a meeting point.

From Shaun Litteral (@LitteralDaddy):

Do you feel with the recent additions at DE/DT that we have enough to at least equally compensate the loss of DT C Wilkins?

Hey Shaun, I’m not sure about “equally” compensating for the loss of Wilkins because he was very good last year, but the hope is that the results at the position will be close to the same collectively.