Reasons for 49ers Optimism and Pessimism This Season

To return to the Super Bowl and win it the 49ers will need to make a series of leaps in thinking, execution, and player development. Some of these areas can be answered in camp, but most will have to wait until the games begin.

OPTIMISM

A leap from Brock Purdy

Coming off his first healthy off-season, Purdy can work on his mechanics to add more zip to throws in tight windows and more bulk to take hits. His stats may take a dip but he won’t. I expect a leader who’s more confident and in command, with more options in his throws and scrambling. He’ll become less predictable and harder to defend.

Using the full RB rotation

Kyle Shanahan has spoken of the need to give Christian McCaffrey more rest and use the full rotation. Now that McCaffrey has been extended he may be more open to sitting out a few downs. It’s a talented group with Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell - and CMC’s injury risk needs to be mitigated.

Speed infusion

The draft brought needed speed at receiver, running back and in the return game. The Niners need one-play drives from talent that’s a threat to score whenever they touch the ball.

Redshirts get to play

Dee Winters is reportedly playing well and he’s needed. Brayden Willis is being used as a motion receiver, Darrell Luter Jr. is ready to go. Players that were held back will help the depth significantly.

Leonard Floyd

He can be overlooked but Floyd is the Niners best edge opposite Nick Bosa since Dee Ford. Floyd doesn’t miss games and produces ten sacks a year. He also has experience in five-man fronts and can be effective in simulated pressure schemes. Floyd's impact can free Nick Bosa to return to an impact season.

The secondary, blitzing and run defense

Through the draft and free agent signings this is the deepest secondary group in the Shanahan Era. Ji’Ayir Brown has been named to many pre-season breakout teams, Deommodore Lenoir is poised for a big year, Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha were added in the draft. Brown, Mustapha, and Green can all blitz and stop the run, a needed upgrade in versatility.

A new defensive coordinator and behind the scenes resource

Nick Sorenson takes over from a veteran coordinator in Steve Wilks and brings risk and opportunity. Sorenson will need to mask defensive intent through simulated pressure, and take advantage of young players that can blitz to dial up packages that generate sacks.

Brandon Staley behind the scenes carries risk and reward as well. Five-man fronts would help Floyd and Javon Hargrave, who thrived in the scheme in Philadelphia.

PESSIMISM

Recovering from a Super Bowl loss

The 49ers have been in four of five NFC Championships, leading to a lot of additional games played that can contribute to injury risk. Beyond that, its emotionally difficult to be ready for a new season coming off their 2nd Super Bowl loss in five years, and in the reasons for the defeat, with several unforced errors.

Can they solve simulated pressure?

Kyle Shanahan’s kryptonite. Baltimore used simulated pressure to generate five interceptions, Kansas City freed nine unblocked pass rushers on blitzes. In a copycat league, every team is going to adopt sim pressure. Seattle hired Mike Macdonald, the Baltimore defensive coordinator, because of the sim pressure wrench he threw into the Shanahan machine.

Shanahan must counter this in personnel, identifying tendencies, and keeping players in to pass protect. Brock Purdy will also need to improve upon identifying threats and countering them quickly.

Injuries

Dre Greenlaw will likely open this season on IR, Talanoa Hufanga may do the same. While safety is deep, linebacker is not. The report of Dee Winters playing well is encouraging news. Key starters Charvarius Ward and George kittle are both coming off core surgery work.

Have they replaced Arik Armstead?

Armstead missed too many games and was released, but did they replace his skillset fully? Armstead was key to the run defense, we’ll see what Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott can do.

Signing Brandon Aiyuk

They need him. He’s made it clear he wants to go to Washington, but that requires a trade offer the Niners will accept. If Aiyuk wants to be a Commander, he needs to tell Jayden Daniels to talk to Adam Peters about upping his trade offer. A trade is highly unlikely, unfortunately so is an extension. The talks will continue to drag out. TBD.