What's Wrong With Louisville Baseball?

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Since Dan McDonnell's arrival as the head coach in 2007, Louisville has been one of the premier baseball program in the nation. Inheriting a program that had only been to the NCAA Tournament once in program history, the Cardinals have made five trips to the College World Series under his 18 years at the helm, and were vaulted into national powerhouse status.

However, it's undeniable at this juncture that program is currently on the downswing. After posting a 32-24 record, Louisville once again was excluded from the NCAA Tournament when Selection Monday rolled around. Previously, it was rare for a McDonnell-led Cardinals squad to miss the postseason. Now, it's become almost a regularity.

Ever since COVID-19 wiped out most of the 2020 season, Louisville has missed three of the last four NCAA Tournaments, including this year. Prior to that COVID-shortened campaign, the Cardinals had only missed the Big Dance just once in McDonnell's 13 years at the helm.

A program that was once synonymous with success is now left in a precarious position. It's clear something is amiss with Louisville baseball. But what precisely is wrong?

Is it a talent issue?

One could make the argument that, over the last few years, Louisville hasn't been nearly as talented as some of their teams from the mid/late 2010's were. But in the same breath, it's not like Louisville hasn't been bringing in talented players as of late.

According to Perfect Game, the Cardinals' last four recruiting classes have all ranked in the top 25. Three of them have even ranked inside the top-11, with their 2022 class coming in at No. 4 overall. Additionally, Louisville has had 16 players selected over the last three MLB Drafts - including a No. 1 overall pick in Henry Davis.

Is Louisville churning out top-five round picks like they were in the last decade? Not quite. But on paper, they don't appear to have some supreme talent deficiency, and should still be competitive in the ACC and overall.

Is it a coaching issue?

Here is where the uncomfortable questions start getting asked.

Pre-COVID, Louisville's identity as a program mostly revolved around their dominance from the mound. From 2007 to 2019, the Cardinals had a team ERA that finished above 4.00 or outside of the top-30 nationally three times. They were, largely, a team that had no issue taking teams down 2-0, 3-1 or 5-2.

But ever since the COVID-shortened season, Louisville's pitching prowess has taken an absolute nosedive. In the three season that they have missed the NCAA Tournament since then, their team ERA has been 5.00 or worse and ranked outside the top-100. The 2024 season was the worst it had ever been under McDonnell, with their team ERA of 6.50 ranked 189th nationally, and was over a full run bigger than the next-worst mark (5.21 in 2022).

Pitching coach Roger Williams has been with McDonnell since day one, and has played as big of a role in Louisville's success as McDonnell has. But there's a large enough sample size to suggest that perhaps it is time for the program to move on.

But playing devil's advocate for a second, pitching hasn't been the only thing that has struggled over the last few years.

While their defense improved over the final month of the season, this was an area where they struggled mightily over most of the year. Their .968 fielding percentage ranked 199th, which was the worst of the McDonnell era In fact, three of McDonnell's six worst fielding percentage teams by national ranking have been in the last four years.

Over on the base paths, Louisville is still one of the most aggressive teams in all of college baseball, with their 105 stolen bases ranking 20th. However, the Cardinals have ran themselves out of multiple innings this season either due to being over-aggressive, or just not paying attention. If the NCAA tracked outfield assists, I'd venture to guess that Louisville would be pretty highly ranked in terms of how many they have allowed.

Defense and base running have also been a staple of McDonnell-led teams, considering that's what he prided himself on in his playing days. That being said, it's worth asking why the Cardinals seemed to have regressed in that area over the last few years.

Is it a culture issue?

From an outsider's perspective, it doesn't seems like Louisville's culture has gone sour. The players and coaches alike all seem to buy into the championship culture that has long been established, and that "the standard is the standard."

There might not be a culture issue per se, but there could be a reluctance to adapt from McDonnell and the staff.

In this day and age of collegiate athletics, everything seems to be dictated by the transfer portal and name, image and likeness. When it comes to these two, as Brad Pitt said in Moneyball, you either adapt or die.

It's no secret that McDonnell has never been one to bring in transfers. Prior to last season, the only time he's ever done that has been grabbing players from the JUCO ranks. While he did start to dabble in the portal for this year's team, none of the four came from the power conference level.

That's not to say that transfers from lower levels can't make that transition to the ACC. Dylan Hoy and Luke Napleton both had good 2024 seasons at the plate, and they came from Marist and Quincy University (D2). But going forward, McDonnell has to make a much more concerted effort to recruit power conference transfers.

As far as NIL goes, it seems that McDonnell and Co. could also be a little more open on that front as well. While none of the coaches have explicitly denounced NIL, comments from outfielder J.T. Benson prior to the season shed a little bit of light on NIL's role in the Louisville baseball program.

"Here in our program, that's not what we've been about," Benson said on the 3rd & Central podcast last September. "We haven't been about giving these people a lot of money, or giving them a car. ... We're sticking to the whole 'you come here to play baseball.' As much as you may be promoting yourself, I think that's probably like a foundational thing for us. We're here to play baseball."

While baseball is undoubtedly lower on the totem poll behind football and men's and women's basketball, NIL and the 502 Circle have done wonders for those aforementioned sports. The funds might not be the same, but infrastructure is certainly there to help.

We've already seen the Clemson football program take a step back in terms of national prominence because of Dabo Swinney's reluctance to use the portal and his stance on NIL. It's not a complete apples to oranges comparison, but Louisville baseball isn't far off.

What are some other factors?

I'm going to play devil's advocate in favor of the Louisville coaching staff for a second.

McDonnell caught some flack from fans this time last year when he challenged the Louisville administration's support of baseball right after the Cardinals' final game last season. Sure, facilities aren't the end-all, be-all in terms on field performance, and athletic director Josh Heird previous said he is committed to assisting baseball, but there is work to do in this area.

In the last few years, there has been an arms race across college baseball to improve facilities, and the ACC is no different. Just in the last five year, Boston College, Virginia Tech and Clemson have undergone notable stadium renovations. Louisville has made a few renovations and beatifications to Jim Patterson Stadium and the support facilities in the last few years, but they pale in comparison to most of the rest of the league.

The Shad Mason Hack Shack, Louisville's hitting facility, is more so suited for a high school team than a Division I program. JPS was originally built when Louisville was a middle-of-the-road Conference USA team, and the only thing different about it since it opened is a few extra seats and trying to emulate Yankee Stadium. The locker room is fantastic, but it required investment from Henry Davis. Four years after a new indoor facility was announced, ground still hasn't been broken. COVID surely played a role here, but the point still stands.

Newer, flashier facilities aren't going to be the reason you win ball games. But they are going to play a massive factor in winning recruiting battles. Especially for a program that sells itself to elite prospects as a fantastic alternate to grinding through the early stages of the minor league system.

Alright, that's enough about facilities.

Something else to consider is a change in non-conference scheduling philosophy. Save for the occasional multi-team event, McDonnell has scheduled a non-con slate where Louisville can pile up a lot of wins before conference play gets underway.

While that might be fine and dandy from and win/loss perspective, it absolutely kills your RPI rating no matter what happens. If you beat a cupcake team, you barely move at all in the RPI, and god forbid you lose. Against more stout competition, the RPI is a lot more forgiving if you lose, but a lot more rewarding if you win.

This year's team is a great example. Louisville went 32-24 overall and 16-14 in ACC play, and missed the tournament. Georgia Tech went 31-23 and 15-15, and got in as a bubble team. The big difference? Louisville was 60th in RPI while Georgia Tech was 49th.

Simply scheduling harder won't automatically mean Louisville will get back to making the NCAAs on a regular basis, but it certainly gives them the benefit of the doubt. Especially since the No. 30 RPI and No. 1 SOS helped Florida make the 2024 field despite going 28-27.

So... what needs to be done?

As highlighted throughout this article, there are certainly some steps that the program could take in order to back on track. A shakeup in the coaching staff or a shakeup in recruiting philosophy could be enough to help get Louisville heading in the right direction. There could also be behind-the-scenes factors at play that the fans or media might not be privy to.

But at this point in time, *something* needs to be done. McDonnell and Louisville can't head into the 2025 season and not make some sort of adjustment to try and get back to their winning ways. If they don't make any sort of changes, well, the definition of insanity certainly applies here.

Adapt or die - even if that means it requires new leadership at 3rd and Central.

(Photo of Louisville players: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)

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