Sun vs. Lynx WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Thursday, July 4

The Connecticut Sun have a one-game lead on the Minnesota Lynx heading into the second meeting of the season between these two teams on Thursday night.

Minnesota lost the first matchup by one point, but it should fare a little better at home where it is an impressive 9-1 straight up this season. The Lynx have the best against the spread record in the W this season, and they’ve shown consistently that they’re going to be a top five team in the league this season.

Connecticut, which started 9-0 this season, has come back to earth over its last 10 games, going 6-4, but it still has the second-best record in the league. Can it pull off an upset on July 4?

Here’s a look at the odds, key players and my best bet for this marquee matchup. 

Sun vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Sun +2 (-110)
• Lynx -2 (-110)

Moneyline

• Sun: +110
• Lynx: -130

Total

• 154.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Sun vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 4
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to watch (TV): Prime Video
• Sun record: 15-4
• Lynx record: 14-5

Sun vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

• Moriah Jefferson – out

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Sun vs. Lynx Key Players to Watch

Connecticut Sun

Alyssa Thomas: An MVP candidate last season, Thomas is averaging 12.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game in the 2024 campaign while shooting 50.9 percent from the field. She’s the engine that makes the CT offense run year in and year out. 

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: One of the best young players in the league, Collier is averaging 20.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game in the 2024 season. In the first meeting with Connecticut, she dropped 31 points and 11 rebounds in a one-point loss. 

Sun vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

The Sun haven’t played bad basketball over this 10-game stretch where they are 6-4, but they do rank well behind the Lynx in terms of net rating (4.0 to 8.2).

Minnesota has been dominant at home all season long (9-1 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) and this is a small price to have to lay on Thursday. 

Over the last 10 games, the Lynx rank No. 1 in defensive rating, and I think they’ll be able to compete with a Connecticut team that likes to play at a slow pace and rely on its defense to win games. 

CT is just ninth in effective field goal percentage over the last 10 games while the Lynx are sixth. It’s not a huge difference, but the Lynx simply outrank the Sun in several key categories over the last month. 

I’ll lay the price with the Lynx to keep their impressive home record going.  

Pick: Lynx Moneyline (-130)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.