Mercury vs. Wings WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, July 3

The Dallas Wings have the worst record in the WNBA – a massive step back from last season – heading into Wednesday’s matchup with the Phoenix Mercury. 

Phoenix fell back below .500 after losing both games of a back-to-back against the Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun at home on Sunday and Monday. It needs to bounce back in a favorable spot as a road favorite against a Dallas team that can’t buy a win right now.

The Wings are down multiple key players in Satou Sabally, Maddy Siegrist and Jaelyn Brown, and that’s led to them losing nine of their last 10 games. Shockingly, Dallas’ lone win came against one of the best teams in the W – the Minnesota Lynx – over this 10-game stretch. 

Phoenix was short handed on Monday against Connecticut – Diana Taurasi and Rebecca Allen were out – and Allen is now questionable, along with Brittney Griner, on Wednesday. 

Should bettors be careful about laying the points here, even with the Mercury facing one of the league’s worst teams? 

Mercury vs. Wings Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Mercury -5 (-110)
• Wings +5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: -218
• Wings: +180

Total

• 170.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mercury vs. Wings How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 3
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: College Park Center
• How to watch (TV): NBA TV
• Mercury record: 9-10
• Wings record: 4-15

Mercury vs. Wings Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Brittney Griner – day-to-day
• Rebecca Allen – questionable
• Charisma Osborne – out

Wings Injury Report

• Maddy Siegrist – out
• Jaelyn Brown – out
• Satou Sabally – out

Mercury vs. Wings Key Players to Watch

Phoenix Mercury

Diana Taurasi: The veteran guard sat out Monday’s loss to the Connecticut Sun, which was the second night of a back-to-back. Taurasi should return in this matchup, and it’s a good one for the Mercury star, as she has 20 and 28 points in her two meetings with Dallas in 2024. Taurasi hasn’t been as efficient as we’d expect (40.2 percent from the field), but she’s averaging 16.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. 

Dallas Wings

Jacy Sheldon: Rookie guard Jacy Sheldon has started the last six games for the Wings, averaging 8.7 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game while shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from 3. With so many key players out, Dallas needs Sheldon to play a bigger role, and being thrust into the starting lineup could be huge for her development in her first WNBA season. 

Mercury vs. Wings Prediction and Pick

Even though Phoenix may be facing Dallas at less than full strength, I still think it’s in a prime spot to win this game and get back to .500 on the season. 

The Mercury are one of the better teams against the spread so far this season, and Dallas has struggled against the spread at home (2-5 ATS and straight up) in 2024. 

Ultimately, Dallas’ defense is going to be the issue that allows the Mercury to win this game. Dallas is dead last in net rating and No. 11 in defensive rating, which mitigates Phoenix’s issues on the defensive end – No. 9 in defensive rating – so far this season. 

Earlier this season, Phoenix won in Dallas by seven points. Since the start of June, all of Dallas’ losses have come by more than five points, and it only has one win. I simply can’t back this struggling team at such a short number on Wednesday.   

Pick: Mercury -5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.